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新冷战:中国崛起、俄罗斯入侵和美国保卫西方的斗争

已有 257 次阅读2024-7-17 14:10 |个人分类:美国

新冷战:中国崛起、俄罗斯入侵和美国保卫西方的斗争

https://bookshop.org/p/books/new-cold-wars-china-s-rise-russia-s-invasion-and-america-s-struggle-to-defend-the-west-david-e-sanger/20302172?ean=9780593443590

David E. Sanger (作者) Mary K. Brooks (与) 2024 年 4 月 16 日

描述

纽约时报畅销书 - 普利策奖获奖记者和畅销书《完美武器》的作者讲述了美国与其他两个核大国——习近平领导下的中国和弗拉基米尔·普京领导下的俄罗斯——陷入激烈竞争的快节奏内幕故事

“[A]令人信服、揭示了一代美国官员如何应对后冷战时代的危险发展……生动地描绘了华盛顿。”——《纽约时报》(编辑精选)

《新冷战》——普利策奖得主、《完美武器》畅销书作者戴维·E·桑格的最新著作——快节奏地描述了美国同时与两个截然不同的对手发生冲突的过程。多年来,美国一直相信,只要新民主的俄罗斯和日益富裕的中国同意华盛顿的条件,他们就可以被引诱进入西方主导的秩序,这个秩序承诺繁荣和相对和平。当美国走出恐怖主义时代时,很明显这只是一个幻想。

现在,这三个大国正展开一场高风险的军事、经济、政治和技术霸权斗争,世界各国都被迫选边站。然而,三人都发现,他们正在一个比他们想象的更加动荡的世界里谋求影响力。

基于对五届总统政府、美国情报机构、外国政府和科技公司的高级官员的大量采访,桑格展开了一场围绕这个时代的关键问题的引人入胜的叙述:普京入侵乌克兰所犯的错误是否会导致他的失败,他是否会动用核武库——或者西方出了名的短暂注意力是否预示着基辅的厄运?习近平会入侵台湾吗?两人是否会深化伙伴关系以削弱美国的主导地位?政治失调的美国还能领导世界吗?

《新冷战》带领读者从乌克兰战场(堑壕战和网络战交织在一起)到生产世界上最先进计算机芯片的台湾总部,再到白宫战情室的紧张辩论,这是一部非凡的初稿历史,记录了美国重返超级大国冲突、未来的选择以及美国和世界面临的风险。

《新冷战》评论:中国、俄罗斯和拜登的艰巨任务

《纽约时报》的戴维·桑格 (David Sanger) 就美国领导人目前面临的外交政策挑战发表了一篇必读文章

劳埃德·格林 2024 年 4 月 21 日

俄罗斯轰炸乌克兰。以色列和哈马斯陷入了一场死亡之舞。耶路撒冷和德黑兰之间爆发全面战争的威胁与日俱增。北京和华盛顿咆哮。在这样的时刻,大卫·桑格的最新著作《中国崛起、俄罗斯入侵和美国保卫西方的斗争》是必读之作。《新冷战》经过精心研究,充满了秘密消息来源的采访和观察记录。

“我大吃一惊”:安妮·雅各布森谈她的核战争设想
阅读更多

与总统关系最密切的官员们着眼于后世。中央情报局局长比尔·伯恩斯的话反复出现在书中。国务卿安东尼·布林肯和国家安全顾问杰克·沙利文在书中出现。桑格是白宫和《纽约时报》的国家安全通讯员,他融合了渠道、权威和好奇心,传达了一个令人震惊的信息:美国的主导地位不再是理所当然的。

在 21 世纪的第三个十年,中国和俄罗斯不顾华盛顿的反对,努力打破现状,同时重拾昔日的辉煌。用桑格的话来说,弗拉基米尔·普京将自己视为彼得大帝的再世,“一个独裁者……一心想恢复旧俄罗斯帝国,解决旧怨”。

核战争的可能性不再是纯粹理论上的。“2021 年,拜登、[马克·] 米利将军和新任白宫国家安全团队发现,美国的核假期已经结束,”桑格写道。“他们正进入一个比冷战时期复杂得多的新时代。”

随着俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争失败,普京和克里姆林宫提出了对基辅部署核武器的威胁。

“俄罗斯可能对非核武装敌人使用核武器的威胁每隔几个月就会浮出水面,”桑格回忆道。

世界不再是“平的”。

r,“另一方开始看起来更像是一个安全威胁,而不像一个有利可图的市场”。不受约束的自由贸易和相互依存为一些国家带来了繁荣和增长,但也引发了许多人愤怒和流离失所。北美自由贸易协定(Nafta)成了一个象征性的四字词。在美国,那些因为中国和墨西哥而失去工作机会的县在 2016 年转而支持特朗普。

拜登和民主党意识到中国从来都不是、也永远不会是美国的朋友。“‘我认为可以公平地说,不同政府的几乎每一个假设都是错误的,”拜登的一位“最亲密的顾问”告诉桑格。

“‘互联网将带来政治自由。贸易将使政权自由化’,同时为美国人创造高技能工作。名单还在继续。很多只是一厢情愿的想法。”

桑格还捕捉到了美国从阿富汗撤军失败所带来的沮丧情绪。喀布尔机场发生自杀式爆炸,造成 13 名美国士兵和 170 名平民死亡。这一事件至今仍令人难忘。

“总统随后不久走进房间,当时麦肯齐将军向他通报了袭击事件,并告知至少有几名美国军人在袭击中伤亡,”伯恩斯回忆道。“我记得总统停顿了至少 30 秒左右,低下了头,因为他正在消化那一刻的悲伤和失落感。”

近三年后,拜登的政治地位仍未恢复。“美国在阿富汗和伊拉克的痛苦经历似乎凸显了帝国过度扩张的危险,”桑格写道。随着伊朗问题成为焦点,中东陷入混乱,接下来会发生什么尚不清楚。

尾声:五角大楼最近进行的补充审查确定,一名伊斯兰国成员实施了喀布尔爆炸案。审查还发现,从战术上讲,这次袭击是无法预防的。

桑格还总结了拜登和以色列总理本杰明·内塔尼亚胡在加沙战争问题上的紧张交流。

“二战期间,美国不是轰炸了东京吗?”内塔尼亚胡质问道。“美国不是发射了两颗原子弹吗?当美国试图消灭伊斯兰国时,在摩苏尔丧生的数千人又该怎么办?”

周四,美国否决了一项授予“巴勒斯坦国”正式联合国成员国资格的决议。几个小时后,标准普尔下调了以色列的信用评级,以色列对伊朗进行了报复。

新冷战确实包含一些比较轻松的内容。例如,桑格发现唐纳德·特朗普向当时的 AT&T 首席执行官兰德尔·斯蒂芬森抱怨他(自己造成的)与女性之间的问题。这位第 45 任总统邀请斯蒂芬森到椭圆形办公室,讨论中国和电信问题。事情并没有那么顺利。

“特朗普在会议的前 45 分钟里喋喋不休地谈论男人如何惹上麻烦,”桑格写道。“全是关于女人的。然后他开始长篇大论地抨击斯托米·丹尼尔斯。”

“1939 年的一刻”:吉姆·斯库托谈论俄罗斯、中国和战争威胁
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斯蒂芬森后来回忆道:“这‘都是同一场脱口秀’的一部分……‘我们只剩下 15 分钟的时间来谈论中国的基础设施’。”

特朗普不感兴趣。斯蒂芬森“可以看出总统的心思在别处。‘这真的很无聊,’特朗普最后说。”

周四,在特朗普在纽约的封口费案中,双方选出了陪审团。丹尼尔斯将担任检方证人。

桑格以怀旧和恐惧的语气结束了他的书。

“尽管目前存在诸多风险,但值得记住的是,旧冷战最引人注目且鲜为人知的成就之一是大国从未将分歧升级为直接冲突。这是我们八十年来无法承受的。”

《新冷战》由企鹅兰登书屋在美国出版

New Cold Wars: China's Rise, Russia's Invasion, and America's Struggle to Defend the West

https://bookshop.org/p/books/new-cold-wars-china-s-rise-russia-s-invasion-and-america-s-struggle-to-defend-the-west-david-e-sanger/20302172?ean=9780593443590 

David E. Sanger (Author)  Mary K. Brooks (With) April 16, 2024

Description

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER - The fast-paced inside story of America's plunge into a volatile rivalry with the other two great nuclear powers--Xi Jinping's China and Vladimir Putin's Russia--from the Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist and bestselling author of The Perfect Weapon


"[A] cogent, revealing account of how a generation of American officials have grappled with dangerous developments in the post-Cold War era . . . vividly captures Washington."--The New York Times (Editors' Choice)


New Cold Wars--the latest from the Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist and bestselling author of The Perfect Weapon David E. Sanger--is a fast-paced account of America's plunge into simultaneous confrontations with two very different adversaries. For years, the United States was confident that the newly democratic Russia and increasingly wealthy China could be lured into a Western-led order that promised prosperity and relative peace--so long as they agreed to Washington's terms. By the time America emerged from the age of terrorism, it was clear that this had been a fantasy.


Now the three powers are engaged in a high-stakes struggle for military, economic, political, and technological supremacy, with nations around the world pressured to take sides. Yet all three are discovering that they are maneuvering for influence in a far more turbulent world than they imagined.


Based on a remarkable array of interviews with top officials from five presidential administrations, U.S. intelligence agencies, foreign governments, and tech companies, Sanger unfolds a riveting narrative spun around the era's critical questions: Will the mistakes Putin made in his invasion of Ukraine prove his undoing and will he reach for his nuclear arsenal--or will the West's famously short attention span signal Kyiv's doom? Will Xi invade Taiwan? Will both men deepen their partnership to undercut America's dominance? And can a politically dysfunctional America still lead the world?


Taking readers from the battlefields of Ukraine--where trench warfare and cyberwarfare are interwoven--to the Taiwan headquarters where the world's most advanced computer chips are produced and on to tense debates in the White House Situation Room, New Cold Wars is a remarkable first-draft history chronicling America's return to superpower conflict, the choices that lie ahead, and what is at stake for the United States and the world.

New Cold Wars review: China, Russia and Biden's daunting task

David Sanger of the New York Times delivers a must-read on the foreign policy challenges now facing US leaders

Lloyd Green  21 Apr 2024 

Officials closest to the president talk with an eye on posterity. The words of the CIA director, Bill Burns, repeatedly appear on the page. Antony Blinken, the secretary of state, and Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser, surface throughout the book. Sanger, White House and national security correspondent for the New York Times, fuses access, authority and curiosity to deliver an alarming message: US dominance is no longer axiomatic.

In the third decade of the 21st century, China and Russia defy Washington, endeavoring to shatter the status quo while reaching for past glories. Vladimir Putin sees himself as the second coming of Peter the Great, “a dictator … consumed by restoring the old Russian empire and addressing old grievances”, in Sanger’s words.

The possibility of nuclear war is no longer purely theoretical. “In 2021 Biden, [Gen Mark] Milley, and the new White House national security team discovered that America’s nuclear holiday was over,” Sanger writes. “They were plunging into a new era that was far more complicated than the cold war had ever been.”

As Russia’s war on Ukraine faltered, Putin and the Kremlin raised the specter of nuclear deployment against Kyiv.

“The threat that Russia might use a nuclear weapon against its non-nuclear-armed foe surfaced and resurfaced every few months,” Sanger recalls.

The world was no longer “flat”. Rather, “the other side began to look more like a security threat and less like a lucrative market”. Unfettered free trade and interdependence had yielded prosperity and growth for some but birthed anger and displacement among many. Nafta – the North American Free Trade Agreement – became a figurative four-letter word. In the US, counties that lost jobs to China and Mexico went for Trump in 2016.

Biden and the Democrats realized China never was and never would be America’s friend. “‘I think it’s fair to say that just about every assumption across different administrations was wrong,” one of Biden’s “closest advisers” tells Sanger.

“‘The internet would bring political liberty. Trade would liberalize the regime’ while creating high-skill jobs for Americans. The list went on. A lot of it was just wishful thinking.”

Sanger also captures the despondency that surrounded the botched US withdrawal from Afghanistan. A suicide bombing at the Kabul airport left 13 US soldiers and 170 civilians dead. The event still haunts.

“The president came into the room shortly thereafter, and at that point Gen [Kenneth] McKenzie informed him of the attack and also the fact that there had been at least several American military casualties, fatalities in the attack,” Burns recalls. “I remember the president just paused for at least 30 seconds or so and put his head down because he was absorbing the sadness of the moment and the sense of loss as well.”

Almost three years later, Biden’s political standing has not recovered. “The bitter American experience in Afghanistan and Iraq seemed to underscore the dangers of imperial overreach,” Sanger writes. With Iran on the front burner and the Middle East mired in turmoil, what comes next is unclear.

A coda: a recent supplemental review conducted by the Pentagon determined that a sole Isis member carried out the Kabul bombing. The review also found that the attack was tactically unpreventable.

Sanger also summarizes a tense exchange between Biden and Benjamin Netanyahu, prime minister of Israel, over the Gaza war.

“Hadn’t the US firebombed Tokyo during world war two? Netanyahu demanded. “Hadn’t it unleashed two atom bombs? What about the thousands who died in Mosul, as the US sought to wipe out Isis?”

On Thursday, the US vetoed a resolution to confer full UN membership on the “State of Palestine”. Hours later, Standard & Poor’s downgraded Israel’s credit rating and Israel retaliated against Iran.

New Cold Wars does contain lighter notes. For example, Sanger catches Donald Trump whining to Randall Stephenson, then CEO of AT&T, about his (self-inflicted) problems with women. The 45th president invited Stephenson to the Oval Office, to discuss China and telecommunications. Things did not quite work out that way.

“Trump burned up the first 45 minutes of the meeting by riffing on how men got into trouble,” Sanger writes. “It was all about women. Then he went into a long diatribe about Stormy Daniels.”

Stephenson later recalled: “It was ‘all part of the same stand-up comedy act’ … and ‘we were left with 15 minutes to talk about Chinese infrastructure’.”

Trump wasn’t interested. Stephenson “could see that the president’s mind was elsewhere. ‘This is really boring,’ Trump finally said.”

On Thursday, in Trump’s hush-money case in New York, the parties picked a jury. Daniels is slated to be a prosecution witness.

Sanger ends his book on a note of nostalgia – and trepidation.

“For all the present risks, it is worth remembering that one of the most remarkable and little-discussed accomplishments of the old cold war was that the great powers never escalated their differences into a direct conflict. That is an eight-decade-long streak we cannot afford to break.”

New Cold Wars is published in the US by Penguin Random House


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