注册 登录
滑铁卢中文论坛 返回首页

风萧萧的个人空间 http://www.shuicheng.ca/bbs/?61910 [收藏] [复制] [分享] [RSS]

日志

James Galbraith China succeeded by rejecting neoliberalism

已有 150 次阅读2024-7-18 17:25 |个人分类:John Kenneth

James Galbraith China succeeded by rejecting neoliberalism

July 11, 2024,YouTube video 

China succeeded by rejecting neoliberalism


Western countries always try use sanctions to prevent China from surpassing them, while American economist James Galbraith challenges such common perceptions about these sanctions and their impact, arguing that it is the West that ultimately suffers.

如果我是中国,我不会太担心美国的制裁,我是说真的,中国比美国大四倍,目前完全有能力在不需要美国向中国供应任何东西的情况下生存。我认为,中国之所以发展成为世界最大经济体,并且以非常可观的优势成为世界最强工业经济体,主要原因是中国没有遵循新自由主义的处方,尽管新自由主义在中国学术思想中占有重要地位,但迄今为止,中国政策的现实在很大程度上是务实的,主要针对具体问题,这些问题以某种方式出现在中国面前,然后一步一步地解决,一般来说相当谨慎,事实证明这对中国非常有利,我的感觉是,美国新自由主义的结果​​是有效摧毁美国政府监督、指导和领导重大技术举措的能力,你必须拥有独立的能力,这种能力不完全受私人公司的控制,能够设定方向,就像曼哈顿计划、太空计划和 20 世纪中叶的许多事情一样,事实上,你知道,早在 19 世纪,这些事情都是政府做的,而且做得相当好,但所有这些都在过去 40 年里被消灭了,所以我很难想象美国会真正使用这些工具,或者能够让这些工具以有效的方式发挥作用,那些拥有这种自主思考新技术能力的国家处于更强大的地位,如果我是中国,我不会太担心美国的制裁,我的意思是真的说真的,中国比美国大四倍,目前完全有能力不依赖美国可能向中国提供的任何产品,我不知道有什么重大意义,以俄罗斯为例,两年前西方宣传的观点是,对俄罗斯的制裁过于依赖西方技术,西方金融,制裁不仅会打击俄罗斯经济,还会让俄罗斯人民和所谓的寡头反对俄罗斯国家,首先,这是一个非常愚蠢的想法,俄罗斯需要西方的钱,因为俄罗斯需要西方的技术,因为俄罗斯需要西方的金融,因为俄罗斯需要西方的金融,因为俄罗斯需要西方的金融购买大量食物、奶酪、葡萄酒、家禽等,比如奶酪和葡萄酒等,这些东西很容易被替代,比如耐用品、机械等,他们发现他们可以替代自己生产的东西,而且他们已经发现十年了,他们可以替代自己生产的东西,他们真的不需要从德国和日本购买东西,更不用说从美国购买了,所以他们继续这样做,同时切断或削减流向欧洲的天然气意味着俄罗斯国内的能源价格稳定,这样俄罗斯企业就有了良好的原材料,俄罗斯市场也因为西方的竞争而扩大了,因此一个被西方深深殖民的经济体基本上实现了非殖民化,俄罗斯经济在经过一段短暂的调整后开始起飞,所以制裁对俄罗斯的影响是在很多方面,我都说过,这相当于一份礼物,实际上,俄罗斯政府不会自行采取这些措施,他们不会驱逐西方公司,他们不会实施资本管制,嗯,有很多事情,寡头们不想在俄罗斯和西方之间做出选择,制裁迫使他们做出选择,嗯,所有这些事情都有助于加强俄罗斯经济,削弱欧洲经济,所以,在这种对俄罗斯中国产能表示一定程度的屈尊俯就的想法背后,我认为,现在有些行业无法实现全球化,如果真的完全脱钩,我认为最有可能的是,其中一些主要行业根本无法生存,它们会崩溃,这将带来非常严重的后果,嗯,你知道这是这个,如果你想看的话,你可以看看规模较小呃,同样的现象想想南斯拉夫发生了什么,南斯拉夫有一个汽车工业,当这个国家解体时,汽车工业就崩溃了,因为他们,苏联解体时也是如此,突然间,国际边界​​和某些类型的活动就崩溃了,因为它们无法持续,它们作为一个单一单位是可持续的,但它们无法跨越这些边界持续下去,所以美国与中国的脱钩将会产生一些这样的后果,所以我希望这不会发生,我希望可以阻止它,明智的政策将占上风,美国和中国之间绝对没有理由发生冲突,美国对华政策可以追溯到1949年,它在很大程度上试图破坏中国的内部稳定,想想我会告诉你,我的父亲20 世纪 60 年代初被派往印度担任大使,当时美国中央情报局向西藏空投游击队,试图推翻中国对西藏的控制,但没有成功,你想想新疆、香港或台湾,这些都是不可或缺的一部分,在某个时候,人们需要成长起来,意识到这不是你再也不会破坏中国的稳定了,我认为,一个理智的人应该意识到,在美国和中国之间,没有什么问题是无法和平解决的,所以我觉得你知道,美国内部发生的事情有一部分是政治问题,嗯,一直需要一个可以支持军事预算的对手,你可以看到,这种预算一直在变化,这在很大程度上是一个内部问题政治和宣传

I if I were China would not be terribly
worried about us sanctions I mean really
seriously uh China's four times larger
than the US uh it's perfectly capable of
doing without at this stage uh
practically anything the US might have
be supplying to
China I will say the reason why or a
major reason why China uh has developed
uh into the largest economy in the world
and the strongest industrial economy in
the world by by a very substantial
margin um is that it did not follow the
neoliberal prescriptions that the the
although there's a strong inroad of
neoliberalism in Chinese academic
thinking the reality of Chinese policy
so far has been largely pragmatic and
has been largely oriented toward
specific problems as they arose and
confronted the state in one way or
another and then that's one one step at
a time and generally speaking quite
cautious and that has been proved to be
to serve China very well and my sense is
that what has happened in the US as a
result of
neoliberalism has been the effective
destruction of the ability of the
government in the United States uh to
monitor supervise uh provide guidance
provide leadership for major
technological initiatives uh that you
really have to have an independent
capacity the one that is is not
completely under the control of private
companies uh not and that is able to set
a directions what we had with the
Manhattan Project uh the the space
program and and a number of things in
the middle of the 20th century uh were
in fact you know considered to be in
fact in earlier too that even in the
19th century these were things that
government did and did quite capably but
all of that was wiped out u in the last
40 years uh so it's very hard for me to
see that the us is going to actually use
these tools or be able to make these
tools pay uh in an effective way know
countries which have maintained that
that sort of autonomous capacity to
think about new technologies are in much
stronger position I if I were China
would not be terribly worried about us
sanctions I mean really seriously uh
China's four times larger than the US uh
it's perfectly capable of doing without
at this stage uh practically anything
the US might have be supplying to China
and I don't know what there is that's of
any great significance they um in the
case of Russia the idea that was
promoted in the west two years ago was
that the sanctions in Russia was so
dependent on Western technology Western
Finance that sanctions would simply both
the Russian economy and turn the
Russian people and also the so-called
oligarchs against the Russian State
first of all a very silly idea that Russ
somehow needs Western money what for
okay I mean for everything that's that's
related to the military and most things
that are related to civilian life Russia
issues its own money second point was
Russia really need Western components
they need Western Technologies uh for
what uh the answer was well yeah they
were using a lot of Western components
aircraft Automobiles and appliances and
all kinds of things and they were buying
a lot of of food cheese wine poultry so
on and so forth well with a case of
things like cheese and wine well these
are easily not they can be substituted
for uh quite readily in the case of the
of durable things machinery and so forth
uh they discovered that they they could
and they have been discovering for a
decade that they could substitute things
they can produce themselves they didn't
really need to buy things from Germany
and Japan let alone from the United
States and so they continued to do this
and at the same time time cutting off
the flow of natural gas to Europe or
cutting it back meant that the energy
prices inside Russia were stable so that
there would be good raw materials for
Russian business and Russian markets for
Russian business expanded because
Western competition and so an economy
which had been deeply colonized by the
West was largely decolonized and the
Russian economy after a period of short
period of adjustment has taken off uh so
the effect of sanctions on Russia was in
many ways I've said the the equivalent
of a gift really there steps that the
Russian government would not have taken
on its own they would not have kicked
out Western firms they would not have
imposed Capital controls uh they there
were lots of things that the oligarchs
didn't want to have to choose between
Russia and the west and the sanctions
forced them to choose um and all all
these things have work to strengthen the
Russian economy and weaken the European
economy so there is behind this idea of
saying a certain amount of
condescension about the capacity of
Russia China I think that there are some
Industries these days which cannot be
deg globalized if you really had a full
decoupling I think the most likely thing
is that some of these major industries
would simply not be viable they'd
collapse which would have very serious
consequences uh you know this is this
you can see if you want to see a smaller
scale uh of the same phenomenon think
about what happened in Yugoslavia which
had a automobile industry when the
country broke up the automobile industry
collapsed because they and and that was
also true when the Soviet Union broke up
and you had suddenly International
borders and and certain kinds of
activity simply fell apart because they
couldn't be sustained uh they were
sustainable as a as a single unit but
they couldn't be sustainable across
these kinds of Frontiers so the
decoupling of the United States from
China is going to have some consequences
of that kind um so and I hope it doesn't
happen I hope it can be uh forestalled
that sensible policies will will prevail
there's absolutely no reason for a
conflict between the US and
China what interpret US policy toward
China really going back to
1949 in a different way that it's
substantially oriented to trying to
destabilize China internally and think
about I'll tell you that my father was
posted to India as Ambassador in the
early
1960s uh and at that time the US the CIA
were dropping Guerilla units into Tibet
to try and upset Chinese control over
Tibet that didn't succeed and you think
about shinjang or Hong Kong or Taiwan
these are all part and parcel at some
point people need to grow up and realize
that this is not you're not going to
destabilize China uh anymore I think it
that that a you know sensibly sensible
person to realize that there there's no
problem that can't be resolved
peacefully between the US and China so
it strikes me that you know part of
what's going on here is inside the US is
a political matter that uh uh there's a
there's always been a need to have an
adversary which can support the military
budget that you can see that shifting
all the time from know um and it's it's
largely a question of internal politics
and propaganda


路过

雷人

握手

鲜花

鸡蛋

评论 (0 个评论)

facelist

您需要登录后才可以评论 登录 | 注册

法律申明|用户条约|隐私声明|小黑屋|手机版|联系我们|www.kwcg.ca

GMT-5, 2025-2-16 12:55 , Processed in 0.024866 second(s), 17 queries , Gzip On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

© 2001-2021 Comsenz Inc.  

返回顶部