YouTube TR Capital

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2L_9XfyT0U

介绍

欢迎大家参加 tr 2021 年投资者日的主题演讲部分，我很高兴邀请到我们的尊贵嘉宾 Ronnie Chan，他是香港上市的恒隆地产的主席，恒隆地产是一家成立于 60 多年前的顶级房地产开发商，Ronnie 在中国投资和创业已有三十多年，他有远见地于 1992 年将恒隆的业务扩展到中国大陆，如今该公司在中国主要城市拥有和管理着 200 万平方米的商业地产，包括上海、天津和杭州，Ronnie 还是 Morningside 的联合创始人，这是一家私人投资集团，在美国、欧洲、中国和东南部拥有广泛的风险投资和房地产控股亚洲，值得注意的是，Ronnie 是一些最成功的中国科技公司的早期投资者，包括携程和小米

Ronnie 是国际公认的慈善家，晨兴基金会向哈佛大学陈曾熙公共卫生学院捐赠 3.5 亿美元，是当时哈佛大学历史上最大的一笔捐款，并引发了后来对哈佛大学的捐赠。Ronnie 对西方和中国都有着深刻的了解，并活跃于全球众多咨询机构和大学，他是美国艺术与科学学院院士，也是美国外交关系委员会和美中关系全国委员会的成员。

Ronnie 代表 tr 和我们的合作伙伴，欢迎并感谢您加入我们关于投资中国的对话，很高兴你为什么开始投资中国。

让我们先回顾一下 20 年前您是中国最早的 tmt 风险投资人之一，当时中国的互联网普及率只有 2%，是什么促使您在那个阶段开始考虑在中国进行科技投资？更重要的是，您以后会继续投资吗？如果会，您认为最好的机会在哪里？

如果您说回溯 20 年前，这有点不公平，那么让我回溯到 30 年前，大约在 1991 年，我决定进入大陆市场，经过两年的深入研究，当时我得出结论，中国的经济开放可能是不可逆转的，随着 1990 年代的发展，我们看到了复苏的速度，我开始意识到，也许我们正在见证人类有史以来最伟大的经济奇迹之一，我想上一次人类看到这样的事情可能是在二战之后，当时欧洲和日本一切都被摧毁了，所以你必须重新开始，我们在 2000 年看到了类似的机会。中国大陆，而且不仅仅是政府的推动力，枪支管制下的政府令人惊叹，而且文化大革命后，人民经历了许多苦难，真的非常想改善生活，所以我认为这给了我们一些信心，在那里经营了 10 年后，大约 2000 年，我们开始投资许多高科技公司，正如你提到的那样，这非常有利可图，而我继续在中国投资，坦率地说，我环顾世界，在过去 30 多年里，我在欧洲、美国和东南亚的许多国家进行了投资，我只是没有看到像中国这样有吸引力的市场，不仅是西方，中国现在是，而且很可能在未来 5 年、10 年、20 年内保持这种状态，所以是的，我会在那里投资，投资中国和西方之间的区别，也许可以稍微了解一下，正如你提到的，你也在美国西欧进行了大量投资，从控制投资到美国工业企业和生物技术企业，您认为在中国和西方的投资方式有什么不同？您是否在投资过程中学到了什么错误，并试图避免？首先，如果可以的话，我认为未来 10 年 15 年，世界上最好的两个投资地点可能是美国和中国，这两个市场都非常大，而且都很稳定，就中国而言，增长率可能仍然相当不错，每年可能达到 5% 6% 7%，所以我认为，这应该仍然是一个很好的市场，呃，您问在这两个地方投资有什么不同？首先，30 年前，情况非常不同，20 年前，情况仍然非常不同，10 年前开始趋同，今天，我想说，它们比 10 年前、20 年前、20 年前、30 年前更相似，也就是说，系统仍然非常不同，所以它永远不会完全收敛，这是好事，如果你知道自己在做什么，那么市场实际上在某种程度上，这很容易预测，总是存在政策风险，政府总是可以改变他们的政策，所以你必须要小心，但基本上你或多或少知道会发生什么，我会给你举个例子，很多人说，嘿，共同繁荣是什么，对吧，我想了想，我说，嘿，等一下，唐小平在 30 40 年前就告诉过我们，让一些人先富起来，所以如果你没有被警告，如果你没有被告知，那么你就不应该投资中国，因为领导人很久以前就告诉过你了，你可能会说为什么，现在这是另一个问题，对吧，但它迟早会到来，所以我认为从这个意义上说，这是很容易预测的，关于中国投资者的想法，所以也许可以接着你提到的另一个观点，共同繁荣，我本来要提一下，你知道，我认为足以说出一些即将出现的新闻头条最近，中国市场对很多投资者和一些观众来说都是一件令人担忧的事情，例如，我们看到金融 IPO 在最后一刻被撤回，一些大型科技公司在中国受到高调监管，课后辅导行业被彻底淘汰，那么你对一些投资者的看法是什么呢？他们走的路与你一开始所说的相反，有些人说，中国现在不可投资了，你怎么看？或者换句话说，中国是否正在反对像你这样的成功企业家和投资者？我不认为中国人那么愚蠢，这些人是我的语言的一部分，我很聪明，他们这样做是有原因的，你必须客观地看待它，并理解他们这样做的原因，一旦你理解了这一点，你就会接受他们的观点，同意他们的观点，而很多时候我都会这样做他们做事的方式有时有点粗暴

但目的通常非常明确

例如您提到的金融

我的意思是没有哪个行业没有哪个国家可以让

准金融系统

以不受控制的方式发展，众所周知，互联网对人类来说仍然相对较新，任何监管都很少，跨境监管几乎不存在，因此在一个国家内

为了系统的经济和特别是金融健康，领导者必须防止某些非常糟糕的事情发生

在我看来，金融和金融确实有可能真的失控，我不知道的是

为什么他们允许它如此接近首次公开募股才采取行动

在我看来他们应该早得多采取行动

具有讽刺意味的是，那天一些阿里巴巴的高层

应该和我一起吃午饭

在这个房间里没有出现，难怪难怪所以我直到那天晚上8点才知道这件事，但无论如何，所以

以金融为例

你可能会说嘿，你失去了一个赚钱的机会，这是真的，但另一方面，如果经济，如果金融市场将陷入严重困境，如果允许它继续下去，那么我将放弃我在短期内可能或不可能获得的任何利润，并说嘿，这对经济和金融市场保持长期健康很重要，所以你知道很多这些呃科技公司呃你知道坦率地说，内森，也许我在社会和道德上有点保守，这让我很生气，现在你知道你把一个芯片放在你的眼睛里，就像一个隐形眼镜，然后你就进入了一个虚拟世界，美国许多顶尖大学有 60 到 70 的本科生需要某种形式的心理呃某种形式的咨询，这对我们来说是一个信号，表明世界没有朝着正确的方向发展，很多都与互联网有关，现在你无法完全控制呃技术的发展通常无法逆转，它为社会和经济效率等带来很多好处，所以它应该朝着特定的方向发展，但另一方面，如果你让那头野兽肆意妄为，那将是完全不受约束的，我认为人类将遭受苦难，我相信中国领导人已经想通了这一点，并说如果纯粹是资本主义，那么一切都会走向何方，那么这将把一个社区、一个社会、一个国家或一个民族引向何方，所以对我来说，一个有能力做到这一点的负责任的政府应该这样做，他们反对资本家吗？我说你疯了吗？当他们在 1979 年经济开放之前反对资本家时，他们很穷，他们知道这是因为采用了市场经济，使他们能够积累财富，所以有些人反应过度，说他们正在转向另一个方向，我说这些人不配赚钱因为我担心他们没有常识，而且他们对 c 一无所知中国，所以我认为，如果你合法合理地开展业务，那么你不知道，因为其中一些是出于国家安全原因，例如，你知道，一个外国人试图拥有一家航空公司或电信公司，甚至一家美国银行，都会面临一些挑战，对吧，你是一名律师，所以你比我更了解，所以在中国大陆，你的情况非常相似，但对我来说，高科技行业，虽然我们都知道它的所有优点，但正如比尔盖茨曾经说过的那样，他很惊讶为什么这么多聪明人没有更聪明的人专注于潜在的负面影响，所以我认为中国政府正在做正确的事情，我认为最终许多西方国家可能不得不效仿，因为他们会发现，社会心理健康问题将变得如此疯狂，而其原因在很大程度上是因为互联网，所以我认为中国正在做正确的事情，你知道人们不喜欢它，我知道你我知道很多朋友都在那里投资，他们中的一些人创办了教育公司，他们这样做是有原因的，正如我所说，他们使用的一些手段可能对某些人来说有点难以接受，但我认为总体目标通常是正确的。关于香港的想法，现在转到另一个话题，这个话题与我的心很接近，我想你的心以及 tr 的，你知道我们扎根于香港，虽然时间不长，但你知道你会对现在评论说香港未来非常暗淡的人说些什么吗？嗯，未来如何？嗯，在我看来，它肯定不像 20 30 年前那么光明，但打赌香港会是件非常冒险的事情，为什么它不像以前那么好？嗯，很多中国男人几十年来都热爱香港，他们爱来香港消费，香港有些人不喜欢他们，事实上他们对中国大陆人非常暴力，你知道，当你不想努力工作时，你通常会嫉妒那些努力工作并取得成功的人，所以很多香港的年轻人被某些方面激进化，20多年来他们一直这么说，他们不想进步，不想学习，不想了解更多，那么你该如何对待这样的人呢？自1997年以来，他们就被一种权利心态所笼罩，然后他们进一步激进化，情况在19 2019年变得如此糟糕，以至于我在香港从未感到过威胁，直到2018年晚上我才得到安全保障。所以主要是中国人，中国人说，嘿，我来这里花钱，你不要我的钱，我要去别的地方，所以那些钱会随时回来吗很快

可能不会，这是我认为香港确实削弱了我们自身经济潜力的一个根本原因，但话虽如此，我想两三件事

第一，金融服务市场

仍然非常强劲，IPO 仍然是

全球第一第二

大陆公司来了，高科技公司来了，生物技术公司来了，所以金融服务

仍然非常强劲，然后它过滤到所有专业人士，律师和会计师，你知道的，等等，这是一件事，另一件事是中国大陆的粤港澳大湾区，中央政府非常关注紧邻香港的大湾区，我可以在一小时五分钟内到达日落机场，事实上，在疫情之前，我经常去日落机场乘飞机去中国大陆的其他城市，不是因为机票

对我来说更便宜，这没那么重要，而是因为那里有更多航班

所以你知道那是大湾区的一部分，香港人也想利用它，我说在 50 年代和 60 年代，我们依靠美国来赚钱，在 70 年代，60 年代和 70 年代，我们依靠欧洲，在 1780 年，我们依靠日本，然后是东南亚的四小虎，然后每个人都来了，在过去的 30 年里，钱从哪里来？太棒了，所以最后一个问题，嗯，你本身就是一个成功的商人，在过去的 20 年里，你还支持了铁拳互联网上一些最好的中国创始人，你认为在支持企业家之前，你会注意哪些特征或特质，人们不知道这一点，但传说小米的创始人在他最终不确定之前创立了三四家公司，我们投资了其中的大多数，所以你已经认识他了，YY 和许多其他人，你知道很多人们知道你知道新商和红杉和这个和那个，你知道当这些家伙开始海上旅行时，我们已经处于谜团之中，所以你知道这些人在很长一段时间里你知道，他们是可敬的人，他们是聪明的人，他们是精明的人，他们中的一些人真的知道如何跳出思维定式，所以你知道，把赌注押在那些已经有良好记录的人身上并不难，所以我认为，呃，当然，这并不难，总会有一些新的热门人物带着新的想法四处走动，所以做决定有点困难，但另一方面，你不是在赌整个农场，你只是和这些人中的一些人一起投入了一点钱，你不知道，我们有一个想法，一段时间后，谁可能是赢家，谁可能是大赢家，谁可能是大赢家，一般来说，时间不重要，对吧，罗尼，再次感谢你抽出时间进行一次非常有见地的谈话，我每次都学到了新的东西，我们非常期待欢迎你回来我们实体投资者的未来日子

谢谢你，谢谢你，内森

Keynote Conversation with Ronnie Chan - 30 years of investing in China

TR Capital

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2L_9XfyT0U

Introduction

welcome everyone to the keynote segment

of tr's 2021 investor day

i'm delighted to have with me our

distinguished guest ronnie chan chair of

hong kong listed hang long properties

which is a top tier real estate

developer founded over 60 years ago

ronnie has been a significant investor

and entrepreneur in china for over three

decades

he had the foresight to expand hang

lung's business into mainland china in

1992

and today the company owns and manages 2

million square meters of commercial

property in major chinese cities

including shanghai tianjin and hangzhou

ronnie is also co-founder of morningside

a private investment group with

extensive venture

pe

and property holdings spanning the u.s

europe

china and southeast asia

notably

ronnie was an early investor in some of

the most successful chinese tech

companies including c trip and xiaomi

ronnie is an internationally recognized

philanthropist

the morningside foundation's 350 million

us dollar donation to endow the harvard

t.h chan school of public health

was the largest in harvard's history at

the time

and sparked subsequent gifts to the

university

ronnie also has a deep understanding of

both the west and china and is active in

numerous advisory bodies and

universities across the globe

he is a fellow of the american academy

of arts and sciences and a member of

both the u.s council on foreign

relations and the national committee on

u.s china relations

ronnie

on behalf of tr and our partners

welcome and thank you for joining us for

this conversation on investing in china

pleasure

Why did you start investing in China

let's um let's start by going back 20

years

you were one of the earliest venture

investors in tmt in china

and at the time the country only had a 2

internet penetration rate what prompted

you to even start looking at tech

investments in china at that stage

and more importantly will you continue

to invest going forward and if so where

do you see the best opportunities

well 

陈企中

if you say go back 20 years it's a little bit unfair so let me go back 30 years

when it was around 1991 that i decided to enter into the mainland market after uh two years of intensive research and at that time i came to the conclusion that china's economic opening was probably irreversible and as we went on during the 1990s we saw how fast the pickup was i began to realize that perhaps we were seeing one of the

greatest economic miracles that mankind has ever seen i think the last time that men had men kind of seen anything like that was probably after world war ii when in europe and japan everything was destroyed and so you have to start over anew and we saw a similar opportunity in the mainland of china and moreover the drive of not just the government the government under gun shopping was amazing but the people after cultural revolution after a lot of suffering really really want to improve their

livelihood so i think that uh

that that gave us uh some confidence

and after 10 years of operating there so

by 20 years ago roughly 2000 uh we

begin to invest in a lot of these high

tech companies as you mentioned

and that has been

very profitable

uh while i continue to invest in china you bet i frankly i look around the world you know we over my the last 30 some years i've invested in many countries in europe us and

southeast asia i just don't see a market that is as

attractive as china not just west but china is and will likely remain

in the next 5 10 20 years so yeah i'll be investing there

Differences between investing in China and the West

maybe to pick up on that a little bit you know as as you've alluded to you

also have extensive investments in u.s western europe ranging from control investments in u.s industrial businesses to biotech ventures what would you say are the differences

if any in your approach towards making

investments in china versus the west

and are there any sort of mistakes that

you learned along the way that you try

to avoid going forward let me first say this if i may nathan i

think the two best places to invest in

the world in the coming 10 years 15

years will likely be the united states

and china both are being very big

markets and both are quite stable quite steady

and in the case of china the growth rate

will likely be still quite good maybe

five six seven percent five six percent

per annum um and so i think that um that should

still be a good market uh is there what

are the differences of investing in both

places you asked well first of all 30

years ago it was very different 20 years

ago it was still very different 10 years

ago beginning to converge and today i would say uh

it is much more akin to each other than

10 than 20 20 30 years ago

that said the system is still very different and

so it will never fully converge

and that's good and it's not good

if you know what you're doing

that then that market actually

can be quite predictable in some ways there's

always policy risk the government can always change uh

their policies so there you have to be

careful but basically you

more or less know what is coming i'll

set you one example a lot of people say

hey what is this common prosperity right

i thought about it and i said hey wait a

second don xiaoping told us about it

30 40 years ago let some people get wealthy

first and so if you are not warned if you are not

told then you shouldn't be investing in

china to start with because the leaders told you a long time

ago you may say why now that's another issue

right but it's sooner or later it's going to

come so i think that in that sense it's quite

predictable Thoughts on Chinese investors

so maybe to pick up then on another

point that you brought up common

prosperity which i was going to bring up

as well you know i think suffice to say some of

the news headlines coming out of china

recently have been alarming for a lot of um you know investors and

some of the audience um so we've seen for example and financial

ipo being pulled in the last minute

high-profile regulatory actions being

taken against some of the large tech

players in china after school tuition sector being wiped

out so what are your thoughts on some of the

investors who are taking the opposite

path to what you just said in the very

beginning so some people are saying

china is now uninvestable what do you

think about that or put another way

is china turning against successful

entrepreneurs and investors like

yourself i don't think the chinese are that

stupid those guys are part of my language that i'm smart

and there's a reason why they're doing

what they are doing and you have to

be objective to look at it

and understand most likely why they are doing that and

once you understand that

then you may come around

to their perspective and agree with them

and oftentimes i do the way they do things sometimes is a

little bit on the rough side at times

but the objective is usually very clear

for example and financial that you

mentioned i mean no industry no country can let

a para financial system shall i say

uh evolve in an uncontrolled way and as we all know the internet is

something still relatively new to mankind anywhere regulation is light and cross-border regulation is almost non-existent and so within a country

for the economic and in particular

financial health of the system

the leaders has to prevent certain very potentially very

bad things from happening in my opinion

financial and financial has that

definite possibility of something really

getting out of hand what i don't know is

why did they allow it to get to such a

close to ipo before they act they should

have acted in my opinion long a lot

earlier ironically that day some of the top alibaba guys were

supposed to have lunch with me right

here in this room didn't show no wonder no wonder so i only knew about

it until 8 pm that day but anyway so so

you take and financial for example

you may say hey you lost an opportunity

make money that's true but on the other

hand if the economy if the financial

market is going to be in serious trouble

by allowing it to go ahead then i would forego whatever profit i

may or may not make in the short run and

say hey it's important for the economy

and the financial market to remain

healthy in the longer term so you know a lot of these uh the the

tech companies uh you know frankly nathan maybe i'm a

little bit socially and morally a little

bit conservative it's get a heck out of

me when these days you know you put a chip

in your eyes like a contact lens and

then you enter into a virtual world

many top universities in america

have 60 to 70 of the undergraduate needs

some kind some form of mental uh some

kind of form of counseling

and that is a sign to us that the world is not moving in the

right direction and a lot of it has to

do with the internet now you cannot completely control

uh technology you cannot reverse it

usually and and it has done a lot of good to society

and to the efficiencies of the economy and so

forth so it should go on in a particular

direction but on the other hand

if you let that shall i say

beast out that is totally without restraint

i think mankind will suffer

i believe that the leaders of china

figured that one out

and said if it is purely

shall i say capitalism

where everything goes then where would that lead a community a

society a nation or a people

and so to me a responsible government that has the

means to do that should do that

are they against capitalists i said are you crazy

they when they were against the capitalists before the economic opening

in 1979 they were poor and they know it it's because of the

adoption of the market economy that enable them to

amass the wealth so for some people to you know overreact

and say they're turning the other

direction i said these guys don't

deserve to make money as far as i'm

concerned they they don't have a common sense

and they know nothing about china

and so i don't think that you know if

you do business legitimately and in reasonable business

because some of them are you know for

national security reasons for example

you know a foreigner tried to own an

airline or telecom company or even a

bank in america would have a little bit

of challenges right you're a lawyer so

you know better than i do so in mainland

china you have a very similar situation

but to me the high-tech sector uh

whereas we all know all the goods of it

but as bill gates once said he's amazed how come so

many smart people are not more smart

people that focus on the potential downside

so i think that the chinese government

is doing the right thing that i think

eventually many of the western countries

may have to follow suit because they will figure out that the

mental health cause for society is gonna be so crazily big

and and the cause of it is because of

par to a good extent because of the

internet and so i think china is doing the right thing

you know people don't like it i know

that you know a lot of my friends are

investing in there some of them found

the company educational company and this

and that right they have a reason why

they are doing that uh as i said some of

the means that they use may be a little bit

unpalatable to some people but i think

the over objective is usually uh the

right one Thoughts on Hong Kong so turning now then to another topic that's

sort of quite close to to my heart and i

think your heart as well as as well as

tr's given you know we're rooted in hong

kong as well not quite as long as hang

on but you know what would you say to some

who are commenting nowadays that you know

hong kong has a very dim future well how comes future

uh in my opinion it's certainly not as

bright as  20 30 years ago but to bet against hong kong will be

also be a very very dicey thing why is it not as good as before well

a lot of men in china loved hong kong

for decades and they love to come to

hong kong and spend money and hong kong some people

don't like them and in fact they were so

violent against mainland chinese people

and you know when you don't want to work

hard you are usually jealous about those who

work hard and and make it and so a lot of these young kids in hong

kong being radicalized by some quarters

and they don't have been saying this for 20

some years that they don't want to

uh advance they don't want to study they

don't want to you know learn more and so what what do you do with such people

an entitlement uh mentality has come in

since 1997 and then they are further radicalized

and it got so bad in 19 2019

that the i've never feel threatened in

hong kong saved my safety until night 2018 19.

so the chinese guys mainly and chinese guys are saying hey i

come here to spend money you don't want

my money i go somewhere else so and will

those money come back anytime soon

probably not and that's one of the

fundamental reason i believe that hong

kong has really cut down our own

potential for economically but that said

think about two or three things number

one uh the financial service market is

still very very strong ipo is still

among number one number two in the world

and mainland companies coming high tech

companies coming biotech companies

coming so the financial service is still

very very strong and then it filters

down to all the professionals that

lawyers and accountants you know and

and so forth that's one thing the other

thing is the greater bay area in mainland

china the central government is very

paying a lot of attention to the greater

bay area which is right next to hong

kong and i can go to the sunset airport in

one hour and five minutes

and in fact in the in before

pandemics i regularly go to sunset

airport to take planes to other cities

in mainland china not because the ticket

is cheaper to me it doesn't matter that

much but because there's so many more flights

so you know that's part of the greater

bay and so do hong kong people want to

take advantage of it i said in the 50s

and 60s we rely on the united states to

make money in the 70s 60s and 70s we

rely on europe in the 1780 we rely on

japan right and then the the four little

tigers southeast asia and then everybody just like coming

and in the last 30 years where does the money come from

mainland china fantastic so one last question um

you're a successful businessman in your

own right and you've also backed some of

the best chinese founders in tekken

internet over the past 20 years

what would you say are some of the

characteristics or traits that you look

out for before backing an entrepreneur

people don't know this but

legend the founder of xiaomi founded

three or four companies before he

finally uncertainly and we were investing in most of those

right so you knew him already yy and

many others right and you know many people know you know new shang and

sequoia and this and that and you know

when the guys started sea trip we were

already in the mystery so you know these people over a long

period of time you know that are

honorable people that they're smart

people they're shrewd people and they

are really some of them are really know how to

think out of the box and so you know it's not that difficult

to bet on people who already have a

good track record right so i i think that uh

it's not that difficult of course

there's always some new hot shot going

around with a new idea right so it was a

little bit harder to to to decide but on

the other hand you're not betting the

farm you just put in a little bit of

money with uh some of these guys and you don't

know well we have some idea

after a while who may be uh a

a winner who and who may be a big winner

and who may be a big big winner

generally time doesn't mind right

exactly well ronnie thank you again for

taking the time for a very insightful

conversation i learned something new

every time and we look forward very much to

welcoming you back at one of our physical investor days in

the future thank you thank you nathan