May 10 2016 German trade surplus swells to fresh record

Feb 09 2017 Germany's trade surplus hits new record high

The Made in Germany brand is on a roll.

Germany's trade surplus reached a new record of €252.9 billion ($270 billion) in 2016, the largest gap between exports and imports since the country's statistical agency started keeping records.

The news follows criticism of Germany's trade policies by Peter Navarro, an economist who leads President Trump's White House Trade Council. Last week, Navarro accused Germany of using a "grossly undervalued" euro to hurt the U.S. economy.

Navarro is likely to see Thursday's report as further evidence that Europe's largest economy should be held to account.

"Peter Navarro is not happy about that and I'll be watching for a Trump tweet," said Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group.

German officials have rushed to defend the country's economic policies following Navarro's broadside.

"Germany is a country that has always called for the European Central Bank to pursue an independent policy, just as the Bundesbank did before the euro existed," Chancellor Angela Merkel said last week in response.

It's true that Germany has no direct control over the euro -- the currency is managed by the ECB.

ECB president to Trump: 'We are not currency manipulators'

But that argument is unlikely to satisfy the U.S. administration, which is pursuing a series of protectionist trade policies. Trump has specifically threatened German automakers with a 35% tariff on cars imported into the U.S.

Jens Spahn, a German deputy finance minister, argued forcefully against the Trump administration's position on Thursday, saying that both the U.S. and Germany have reaped the benefits of globalization and economic integration.

"Blaming a country that has embraced these tasks and benefits from a highly competitive business environment would be bizarre. Nobody can have an interest in provoking a trade war," he wrote in the Wall Street Journal.

This is not the first time that Germany's trade imbalance has come under scrutiny. Many economists, including those at the European Central Bank, have warned that the trade imbalance within poses a risk to the eurozone.

Critics argue that the German government should encourage faster wage growth by boosting its domestic spending. They say that would boost domestic growth as well as demand for imports from other countries.

The German government is largely resistant to that idea, however. Instead, it is focused on achieving a balanced budget.

Chamber of Commerce to Trump: Don't mess with trade

Jennifer McKeown, chief European economist at Capital Economics, said the Trump administration may pursue a variety of strategies to reduce imports from Europe and boost domestic production.

"While protectionism may come in the form of tariffs, the U.S. administration might also attempt to keep down the value of the dollar," she said.

德国贸易愈发失衡 巨额贸易顺差引发“内忧外患”

华尔街见闻 2017-03-07

德国巨额的贸易顺差不仅仅惹恼了特朗普政府，也引起了德国国内政治家、经济学家的担忧。

从德国大选的“主角们”近期提案看，德国可能开始削减贸易盈余，通过庞大的税收收入来提振国内需求。因为德国对全球其他地区巨额的贸易顺差已令其他国家感到警惕。

在9月大选之前，默克尔所在的德国基督教民主联盟已经承诺减税，而同时，基社盟领袖泽霍费尔(Horst Seehofer)呼吁“德国史上最大的减税”。

而他们的对手——社会民主党的舒尔茨则希望使用贸易盈余来提振支出。“我们需要资金用于培训、教育和投资”， 舒尔茨称。

另外，对飙涨的出口与略微增长的进口之间的差距，德国经济学家也提出了担忧。而这种不平衡与该国高储蓄率密切相关。

“很多人看到了，德国经常账户盈余不是一个经济的概念，而是一个道德的概念。”FT援引德国智库DIW 负责人Marcel Fratzscher表示。

3月6日，美国白宫国家贸易委员会主任彼得·纳瓦罗（Peter Navarro）再度就贸易逆差问题批评德国，并称在德国理默克尔下周（3月14日）访美期间，美国应就该问题和德国进行坦率讨论。

纳瓦罗称，对德贸易逆差是美国必须处理的难题，特朗普政府正认真思考如何改善美德经贸关系。德国不能以欧元区做挡箭牌。

纳瓦罗曾在2月指责德国操纵欧元汇率，导致欧元被“严重低估”，损害了美国利益。

3月7日，德国财长朔伊布勒表示，德国并未操纵出口，德国的经常账户顺差是因德国经济有竞争力。

这位德国财长还透露，将于3月16日同美国财长Mnuchin进行双边对话。值得注意的是，G20财长将于3月17日在德国举行，德国贸易顺差或成关注重点。 数据显示，2016年，德国是美国第三大贸易逆差来源国，仅次于中国和日本，美德贸易逆差达649亿美元。此外，得益于欧元持续贬值，2016年德国贸易顺差创下历史纪录，高达2529亿欧元。

据德国经济研究所数据，2016年德国经常项目盈余为2970亿美元，为全球最高，高于中国的2450亿美元。