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German current account surplus to hit record, world's largest in 2016

已有 175 次阅读2017-7-29 05:00 |个人分类:德国



German current account surplus to hit record, world's largest in 2016

JANUARY 30, 2017 / 5:22 AM 
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-economy-trade-idUSKBN15E0W4

People walk through the Mall of Berlin shopping centre during its opening night in Berlin, September 24, 2014.

BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany's current account surplus is expected to have hit a new record of $297 billion in 2016, overtaking that of China again to become the world's largest, the Munich-based Ifo economic institute said on Monday.

This would be equivalent to 8.6 percent of total output, which means it would once again breach the European Commission's recommended upper threshold of 6 percent. In 2015 the current account surplus stood at $271 billion.

The European Commission and the United States have urged Germany to lift domestic demand and imports to help reduce global economic imbalances and fuel global growth, including within the euro zone.

Germany rejects such criticism, saying it already lifted domestic demand by introducing a national minimum wage in 2015 and agreeing on a strong hike in pension entitlements in 2016. In addition, the government has increased state spending on roads, digital infrastructure and asylum seekers while sticking to its goal of keeping a balanced budget.

Asked about Ifo's estimate, a spokeswoman for the economy ministry said the government views the surplus as high but the imbalance was not excessive.

"The federal government shares the view of the European Commission that the German current account surplus has to be assessed as high - but it doesn't represent an excessive imbalance," spokeswoman Tanja Alemany Sanchez de Leon said.

She added that Germany's current account surplus with other euro zone countries halved to some 2 percent of gross domestic product in 2015 from roughly 4 percent in 2007.

"That shows there is a reduction of trade imbalances within the euro zone," the spokeswoman said, adding that 44 percent of Germany's current account surplus was due to business relations with the United States and Britain.

Ifo estimated China's current account surplus at $245 billion last year due to weaker exports. By contrast, the United States is predicted to have the world's largest capital imports, with a deficit of $478 billion for 2016, Ifo said.

Ifo's current account estimate for Germany is lower than a previous estimate of $310 billion.

German Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel said on Thursday that the country's record current account surplus is likely to shrink in 2017 because a slowdown in global trade is dampening export growth while strong domestic demand is pushing up imports.

Reporting by Rene Wagner and Gernot Heller; Writing by Joseph Nasr Editing by Jeremy Gaunt.

超过中国 德国成为全球最大贸易顺差国
2017-07-29 02:27
7

摘要:IMF称,去年德国经常账户顺差2890亿美元。而美国经常账户赤字高达4517亿美元,居全球首位。这会成为美国实行贸易保护主义的新理由吗?

华尔街见闻(微信ID:wallstreetcn),作者张丹丹。

德国成为全球最大贸易顺差国

周五国际货币基金组织(IMF)发布年度外部风险评估报告称,德国超过中国,成为全球最大贸易顺差国。这意味着,发达国家应当对全球经济失衡负有越来越主要的责任。

IMF公布的最新数据显示,2016年德国经常账户顺差规模达2890亿美元,占当年德国GDP总额的8.3%。而中国2016年经常账户顺差规模下滑至1964亿美元,占GDP总额的1.7%,这一比例远低于2007年约10%的历史高位。

经常账户赤字规模最大的前三个国家分别是美国、英国和加拿大。

美国2016年经常账户赤字4517亿美元,占GDP总额2.4%。这一数字几乎是英国经常账户赤字的四倍之多。而加拿大贸易赤字为505亿美元,不及英国的二分之一。

英国金融时报指出,该数据显示,全球贸易失衡的状况正在向一小部分重要经济体集中,而这很可能带来新的风险。

这会成为美国发难的新理由吗?IMF并不这么认为

美国总统特朗普及其团队一直将缩小美国贸易赤字作为首要经济任务之一,曾指责德国利用弱势欧元获取贸易利益,并威胁将对来自中国、德国、韩国的钢材和铝等产品采取关税和其他限制。

今年5月德国《明镜》周刊报道称,特朗普曾在与欧盟首脑会谈时,指责德国对美存在巨额对美贸易。而更早之前,特朗普曾主张对德国汽车征收高达35%的关税。

如此看来,IMF的评估报告似乎让特朗普又有理由向德国“开炮”了。

但IMF明确表示,保护主义措施不仅不会改变贸易失衡的状况,反而会伤害国内和全球的经济增长。

IMF指出,强征关税和强加其他贸易壁垒对消除经常账户赤字几乎没有任何作用——而这正是特朗普当下试图采取的保护措施。

IMF建议,美国应当通过降低联邦预算赤字、进行结构性改革等措施来降低经常帐赤字。

“退居二线”的中国:不刻意追求贸易顺差

中国贸易顺差的下降,正印证了中国官方此前的表态。

27日中国商务部表示,中国并不刻意追求贸易顺差,愿意继续采取积极措施,扩大自美进口。

上周三美国农业部在声明中称,已和中国就最后的细节内容达成共识,美国将在历史上第一次得以向中国出口大米。

而两个月前,中国时隔十多年向美国开放牛肉进口。

中国商务部强调,希望美国也能相向而行,在放宽对华出口管制等方面迈出实质性步伐。


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