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How not to be ignorant about the world 避免愚昧地看世界

已有 2079 次阅读2018-7-13 12:07 |个人分类:人物


How not to be ignorant about the world 避免愚昧地看世界

TED Salon Berlin 2014
By Hans and Ola Rosling  
4,099,294 views • 19:05• Subtitles in 33 languages
About speaker Hans and Ola Rosling
Hans Rosling · Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.
https://www.ted.com/talks/hans_and_ola_rosling_how_not_to_be_ignorant_about_the_world/transcript

00:00
Hans Rosling: I'm going to ask you three multiple choice questions. Use this device. Use this device to answer. The first question is, how did the number of deaths per yearfrom natural disaster, how did that change during the last century? Did it more than double, did it remain about the same in the world as a whole, or did it decrease to less than half? Please answer A, B or C. I see lots of answers. This is much faster than I do it at universities. They are so slow. They keep thinking, thinking, thinking. Oh, very, very good.

00:34
And we go to the next question. So how long did women 30 years old in the world go to school: seven years, five years or three years? A, B or C? Please answer.

00:50
And we go to the next question. In the last 20 years, how did the percentage of people in the world who live in extreme poverty change? Extreme poverty — not having enough food for the day. Did it almost double, did it remain more or less the same, or did it halve? A, B or C?

01:11
Now, answers. You see, deaths from natural disasters in the world, you can see it from this graph here, from 1900 to 2000. In 1900, there was about half a million people who died every year from natural disasters: floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruption, whatever, droughts. And then, how did that change?

01:35
Gapminder asked the public in Sweden. This is how they answered. The Swedish public answered like this: Fifty percent thought it had doubled, 38 percent said it's more or less the same, 12 said it had halved. This is the best data from the disaster researchers, and it goes up and down, and it goes to the Second World War, and after that it starts to fall and it keeps falling and it's down to much less than half. The world has been much, much more capable as the decades go by to protect people from this, you know. So only 12 percent of the Swedes know this.

02:11
So I went to the zoo and I asked the chimps. (Laughter) (Applause) The chimps don't watch the evening news, so the chimps, they choose by random, so the Swedes answer worse than random. Now how did you do? That's you. You were beaten by the chimps. (Laughter) But it was close. You were three times better than the Swedes, but that's not enough. You shouldn't compare yourself to Swedes. You must have higher ambitions in the world.

03:00
Let's look at the next answer here: women in school. Here, you can see men went eight years. How long did women go to school? Well, we asked the Swedes like this, and that gives you a hint, doesn't it? The right answer is probably the one the fewest Swedes picked, isn't it?(Laughter) Let's see, let's see. Here we come. Yes, yes, yes, women have almost caught up. This is the U.S. public. And this is you. Here you come. Ooh. Well, congratulations, you're twice as good as the Swedes, but you don't need me —

03:41
So how come? I think it's like this, that everyone is aware that there are countries and there are areas where girls have great difficulties. They are stopped when they go to school, and it's disgusting. But in the majority of the world,where most people in the world live, most countries, girls today go to school as long as boys, more or less. That doesn't mean that gender equity is achieved, not at all.They still are confined to terrible, terrible limitations, but schooling is there in the world today. Now, we miss the majority. When you answer, you answer according to the worst places, and there you are right, but you miss the majority.

04:26
What about poverty? Well, it's very clear that poverty herewas almost halved, and in U.S., when we asked the public,only five percent got it right. And you? Ah, you almost made it to the chimps. (Laughter) (Applause) That little, just a few of you! There must be preconceived ideas, you know. And many in the rich countries, they think that oh, we can never end extreme poverty. Of course they think so, because they don't even know what has happened.The first thing to think about the future is to know about the present.

05:11
These questions were a few of the first ones in the pilot phase of the Ignorance Project in Gapminder Foundation that we run, and it was started, this project, last year by my boss, and also my son, Ola Rosling. (Laughter) He's cofounder and director, and he wanted, Ola told me we have to be more systematic when we fight devastating ignorance. So already the pilots reveal this, that so many in the public score worse than random, so we have to think about preconceived ideas, and one of the main preconceived ideas is about world income distribution.

05:46
Look here. This is how it was in 1975. It's the number of people on each income, from one dollar a day —(Applause) See, there was one hump here, around one dollar a day, and then there was one hump heresomewhere between 10 and 100 dollars. The world was two groups. It was a camel world, like a camel with two humps, the poor ones and the rich ones, and there were fewer in between.

06:15
But look how this has changed: As I go forward, what has changed, the world population has grown, and the humps start to merge. The lower humps merged with the upper hump, and the camel dies and we have a dromedary worldwith one hump only. The percent in poverty has decreased. Still it's appalling that so many remain in extreme poverty. We still have this group, almost a billion, over there, but that can be ended now.

06:45
The challenge we have now is to get away from that, understand where the majority is, and that is very clearly shown in this question. We asked, what is the percentage of the world's one-year-old children who have got thosebasic vaccines against measles and other things that we have had for many years: 20, 50 or 80 percent? Now, this is what the U.S. public and the Swedish answered. Look at the Swedish result: you know what the right answer is.(Laughter) Who the heck is a professor of global health in that country? Well, it's me. It's me. (Laughter) It's very difficult, this. It's very difficult. (Applause)

07:26
However, Ola's approach to really measure what we know made headlines, and CNN published these results on their web and they had the questions there, millions answered,and I think there were about 2,000 comments, and this was one of the comments. "I bet no member of the media passed the test," he said.

07:48
So Ola told me, "Take these devices. You are invited to media conferences. Give it to them and measure what the media know." And ladies and gentlemen, for the first time, the informal results from a conference with U.S. media.And then, lately, from the European Union media.(Laughter) You see, the problem is not that people don't read and listen to the media. The problem is that the media doesn't know themselves.

08:17
What shall we do about this, Ola? Do we have any ideas?(Applause)

08:32
Ola Rosling: Yes, I have an idea, but first, I'm so sorry that you were beaten by the chimps. Fortunately, I will be able to comfort you by showing why it was not your fault, actually. Then, I will equip you with some tricks for beating the chimps in the future. That's basically what I will do.

08:53
But first, let's look at why are we so ignorant, and it all starts in this place. It's Hudiksvall. It's a city in northern Sweden. It's a neighborhood where I grew up, and it's a neighborhood with a large problem. Actually, it has exactly the same problem which existed in all the neighborhoodswhere you grew up as well. It was not representative. Okay? It gave me a very biased view of how life is on this planet. So this is the first piece of the ignorance puzzle.We have a personal bias.

09:26
We have all different experiences from communities and people we meet, and on top of this, we start school, and we add the next problem. Well, I like schools, but teachers tend to teach outdated worldviews, because they learned something when they went to school, and now they describe this world to the students without any bad intentions, and those books, of course, that are printed are outdated in a world that changes. And there is really no practice to keep the teaching material up to date. So that's what we are focusing on. So we have these outdated factsadded on top of our personal bias.

10:05
What happens next is news, okay? An excellent journalist knows how to pick the story that will make headlines, and people will read it because it's sensational. Unusual events are more interesting, no? And they are exaggerated, and especially things we're afraid of. A shark attack on a Swedish person will get headlines for weeks in Sweden.

10:30
So these three skewed sources of information were really hard to get away from. They kind of bombard us and equip our mind with a lot of strange ideas, and on top of it we put the very thing that makes us humans, our human intuition. It was good in evolution. It helped us generalizeand jump to conclusions very, very fast. It helped us exaggerate what we were afraid of, and we seek causality where there is none, and we then get an illusion of confidence where we believe that we are the best car drivers, above the average. Everybody answered that question, "Yeah, I drive cars better."

11:15
Okay, this was good evolutionarily, but now when it comes to the worldview, it is the exact reason why it's upside down. The trends that are increasing are instead falling,and the other way around, and in this case, the chimps use our intuition against us, and it becomes our weakness instead of our strength. It was supposed to be our strength, wasn't it?

11:37
So how do we solve such problems? First, we need to measure it, and then we need to cure it. So by measuring it we can understand what is the pattern of ignorance. We started the pilot last year, and now we're pretty sure that we will encounter a lot of ignorance across the whole world, and the idea is really to scale it up to all domains or dimensions of global development, such as climate, endangered species, human rights, gender equality, energy, finance. All different sectors have facts, and there are organizations trying to spread awareness about these facts. So I've started actually contacting some of them,like WWF and Amnesty International and UNICEF, and asking them, what are your favorite facts which you think the public doesn't know?

12:28
Okay, I gather those facts. Imagine a long list with, say, 250 facts. And then we poll the public and see where they score worst. So we get a shorter list with the terrible results, like some few examples from Hans, and we have no problem finding these kinds of terrible results. Okay, this little shortlist, what are we going to do with it? Well, we turn it into a knowledge certificate, a global knowledge certificate, which you can use, if you're a large organization, a school, a university, or maybe a news agency, to certify yourself as globally knowledgeable.Basically meaning, we don't hire people who score like chimpanzees. Of course you shouldn't. So maybe 10 years from now, if this project succeeds, you will be sitting in an interview having to fill out this crazy global knowledge.

13:22
So now we come to the practical tricks. How are you going to succeed? There is, of course, one way, which is to sit down late nights and learn all the facts by heart by reading all these reports. That will never happen, actually. Not even Hans thinks that's going to happen. People don't have that time. People like shortcuts, and here are the shortcuts. We need to turn our intuition into strength again. We need to be able to generalize. So now I'm going to show you some tricks where the misconceptions are turned around into rules of thumb.

13:58
Let's start with the first misconception. This is very widespread. Everything is getting worse. You heard it. You thought it yourself. The other way to think is, most things improve. So you're sitting with a question in front of youand you're unsure. You should guess "improve." Okay? Don't go for the worse. That will help you score better on our tests. (Applause) That was the first one.

14:26
There are rich and poor and the gap is increasing. It's a terrible inequality. Yeah, it's an unequal world, but when you look at the data, it's one hump. Okay? If you feel unsure, go for "the most people are in the middle." That's going to help you get the answer right.

14:42
Now, the next preconceived idea is first countries and people need to be very, very rich to get the social development like girls in school and be ready for natural disasters. No, no, no. That's wrong. Look: that huge hump in the middle already have girls in school. So if you are unsure, go for the "the majority already have this," like electricity and girls in school, these kinds of things. They're only rules of thumb, so of course they don't apply to everything, but this is how you can generalize.

15:14
Let's look at the last one. If something, yes, this is a good one, sharks are dangerous. No — well, yes, but they are not so important in the global statistics, that is what I'm saying. I actually, I'm very afraid of sharks. So as soon as I see a question about things I'm afraid of, which might be earthquakes, other religions, maybe I'm afraid of terrorists or sharks, anything that makes me feel, assume you're going to exaggerate the problem. That's a rule of thumb.Of course there are dangerous things that are also great.Sharks kill very, very few. That's how you should think.

15:52
With these four rules of thumb, you could probably answer better than the chimps, because the chimps cannot do this. They cannot generalize these kinds of rules. And hopefully we can turn your world around and we're going to beat the chimps. Okay? (Applause) That's a systematic approach.

16:21
Now the question, is this important? Yeah, it's important to understand poverty, extreme poverty and how to fight it,and how to bring girls in school. When we realize that actually it's succeeding, we can understand it. But is it important for everyone else who cares about the rich end of this scale? I would say yes, extremely important, for the same reason. If you have a fact-based worldview of today,you might have a chance to understand what's coming next in the future.

16:50
We're going back to these two humps in 1975. That's when I was born, and I selected the West. That's the current EU countries and North America. Let's now see how the rest and the West compares in terms of how rich you are. These are the people who can afford to fly abroad with an airplane for a vacation. In 1975, only 30 percent of them lived outside EU and North America. But this has changed, okay? So first, let's look at the change up till today, 2014. Today it's 50/50. The Western domination is over, as of today. That's nice. So what's going to happen next? Do you see the big hump? Did you see how it moved? I did a little experiment. I went to the IMF, International Monetary Fund, website. They have a forecast for the next five years of GDP per capita. So I can use that to go five years into the future, assuming the income inequality of each country is the same. I did that, but I went even further. I used those five years for the next 20 years with the same speed, just as an experiment what might actually happen. Let's move into the future. In 2020, it's 57 percent in the rest. In 2025, 63 percent. 2030, 68. And in 2035, the West is outnumbered in the rich consumer market. These are just projections of GDP per capita into the future. Seventy-three percent of the rich consumers are going to live outside North America and Europe. So yes, I think it's a good idea for a company to use this certificate to make sure to make fact- based decisions in the future.

18:39 
Thank you very much. (Applause)

18:48
Bruno Giussani: Hans and Ola Rosling!
00:00

汉斯•罗斯林:我会给你们做 三道多项选择题 用这个装置来回答 第一个问题是 在过去一个世纪里 每年因自然灾害 死亡的人数 发生了怎样的变化 是翻倍了 还是在全世界范围内总体不变 还是下降了一半呢 请选择A B 或C 我已经看到很多人回答了 这比我在大学里做的时候快得多 他们动作很慢 他们一直想啊 想啊 好 很好
00:34
下一个问题 在全世界范围内 30岁的女性的 受教育的年限是 七年 五年还是三年 A B 还是C 请回答
00:50
我们看下一个问题 过去20年里 占世界人口多少百分比的人 生活在极端贫困中? 极端贫困指的是每天填不饱肚子 是几乎翻倍了 还是基本维持不变 还是减半了? A B 或 C
01:11
现在 公布答案 如你所见 全球因自然灾害死亡的人数 你可以从这幅图里看到 从1900年到2000年 1900年 每年有接近50万人 死于自然灾害 洪水 地震 火山喷发 其他 干旱 然后 发生了怎样的变化呢
01:35
Gapminder对瑞典公众进行了调查 他们是这样回答的 瑞典公众的回答是这样的 50%的人认为翻倍了 38%的人认为没太大变化 12%的人认为减半了 对于灾害研究人员来说 这是最理想的数字 然后上下有所浮动 然后到了二战 之后就开始一路下滑 下降至远低于一半 这个世界 相比数十年前而言 在保护人们免受自然灾害方面 的能力已经强了太多 只有12%的瑞典人知道这一点
02:11
所以我去了趟动物园 问了黑猩猩同样的问题 (笑声)(掌声) 黑猩猩才不看晚间新闻 所以它们 是随机选择的 所以瑞典人的正确率还不如随机 现在来看看你们做的怎样? 这是你们的答案 你们被黑猩猩打败了 (笑声) 但很接近了 你们的正确率比瑞典人高了三倍 但这还不够 你们不应该拿自己跟瑞典人比 你们对于世界的野心肯定不止于此
03:00
来看下一个答案 女性所受的学校教育 这里 你可以看到男性是八年 女性所受的学校教育年限是? 瑞典人是这么回答的 你从这里能总结出规律了 是吧 正确的答案很可能是 最少瑞典人选择的那个 对吧 (笑声) 咱们来看看 开始 没错 没错 女性几乎赶上了 这是美国公众的选择 然后这里是你们的选择 请看 噢 祝贺大家 你们的正确率比瑞典人高一倍 但是你们不需要我来
03:41
怎么会这样? 我想这是因为 大家都知道在有些国家 有些地区 女孩子们依然处于巨大的困境之中 她们不被允许去学校 这是令人无法接受的 但是在世界上的大部分地方 在大部分人生活的地区 绝大多数国家 女孩子们上学的时间 和男孩子们一样长 或多或少 这并不意味着男女平等已经实现了 完全不是 她们依然受到许多严重的束缚 但学校教育已经成为了主流 现在 我们忽略了大多数情形 当你回答问题时 你以最差的情形为依据 这并不意味着你错了 但是你把大多数情形给忽略了
04:26
关于贫困呢? 非常明显 贫困率几乎减半 然而在美国 但我们向公众提问时 只有5%的人回答正确 那你们呢? 差一点就跟黑猩猩一样了 (笑声)(掌声) 一点点 就差你们中的一小部分人! 先入为主的观念是一定存在的 很多富裕国家都认为 我们永远无法消除极端贫困 他们当然是这么认为的 因为他们根本不知道发生了些什么 想要预知未来 必须先了解现在
05:11
以上这些问题是由我们负责的Gapminder基金会 在"无知项目"的试运行阶段 所提出的问题中的一部分 这个项目是在去年 由我的老板 同时也是我的儿子 奥拉•罗斯林启动的 (笑声) 他是联合创始人兼总监 并且他想要 奥拉告诉我 我们在对抗惊人的无知的战斗中 需要更具有系统性 试运行结果已经表明 有许多公众的得分比随机选择还要低 所以我们不得不对那些先入为主的观点进行思考 其中一个主要的观点是 关于世界上的收入分配
05:46
看这个 这是1975年的数据 是人均收入的数值 从每天一美元 (掌声) 看 这里有一个高峰 在每天一美元左右 然后这里还有一个高峰 大约在10到100美元之间 世界上有两大群体 像骆驼一样 有两个驼峰 穷人和富人 介于两者之间的人较少
06:15
但是我们来看看数字是如何变化的 随着时间推移 发生了什么样的变化 随着世界人口的增长 两个驼峰开始合并 低的驼峰向高的驼峰融合 骆驼死了 然后我们得到了一头新的单峰骆驼 只有一个驼峰 贫困人口的比例减少了 但是依然很惊人 有这么多人仍然生活在极端贫困中 大概还有接近10亿人 但这是可以被终结的
06:45
我们现在所面临的挑战是 如何摆脱这些观念 去了解大多数人的处境 这一点在以下问题中得到了充分的体现 问 世界上有多少比例的一岁儿童 接种了那些我们已经使用了多年的 对抗麻疹以及其他疾病的 疫苗 百分之20 50 还是80? 这是美国和瑞典公众的回答 看看瑞典的结果 你就该知道正确的答案是什么了 (笑声) 该国有个搞全球健康研究的教授 是谁 好吧 是我 (笑声) 这非常难 非常困难 (掌声)
07:26
然而 奥拉用于 测量我们所知多少的方法 上了头条 CNN在网站上公布了调查结果 有几百万人回答了这些问题 然后我记得大概有两千多条评论 其中一条是这么说的 "我打赌新闻界没人能通过这个测试" 他说
07:48
然后奥拉跟我说"带上这些设备 你被邀请参加的是媒体圈的会议 分给他们 然后测一测新闻界知道多少" 女士们 先生们 首先 是来自一场美国媒体会议上的 非正式结果 之后 是来自欧盟媒体的 (笑声) 大家看 问题并不在于 人们不读或者不听新闻 问题在于连媒体自己都不知道
08:17
我们对此该怎么办呢 奥拉? 有什么主意吗? (掌声)
08:32
奥拉•罗斯林:是的 我有个主意 但首先 对于你们被黑猩猩打败 我表示很抱歉 幸运的是 我有办法安慰你们 因为其实这不是你们的错 然后 我会给你们提供一些窍门 以便你们以后能够打败黑猩猩 我接下去会做的基本就是这些
08:53
首先 来看看为什么我们会如此的无知 一切都始于这个地方 这是胡迪克斯瓦尔 瑞典北部的一座城市 我在这个地方长大 这个地方有着一个很大的问题 实际上 这个地方 跟你们从小所居住的那些地方 存在着一模一样的问题 那就是不具备典型性 他让我对于“其他人是如何生活的” 的看法是带有很强烈的偏见的 所以这是“无知拼图”的第一块 我们有个人偏见
09:26
我们在各自的社区 和我们所遇见的人身上 所获得经验都是不同的 在此之上 我们还会上学 这就带来了下一个问题 当然 我喜欢学校 但老师们倾向于教授过时的世界观 因为这些东西是他们上学的时候学到的 现在 尽管不带有任何的恶意 他们又将这些知识教给了学生 还有书 在这个瞬息万变的世界里 那些印刷出来的书 当然也是过时的 并且没有一个有效的措施 能使教材与时俱进 所以这就是我们的关注点 我们知道的是过时的情况 加上我们的个人偏见
10:05
接下去就是新闻了 对吧? 一个杰出的记者很清楚 要如何选题才能上头条 人们之所以会看是因为它耸人听闻 不寻常的事件才更有意思 不是吗? 然后他们会夸大其词 尤其是那些令我们害怕的事情 一名瑞典人遭到鲨鱼的攻击 这类新闻会在瑞典媒体上保持头条几星期
10:30
我们很难摆脱 这三类歪曲的消息来源 它们对我们狂轰滥炸 并且用许多奇怪的观点武装来我们的思维 在此基础上 再加上一项人类独特的功能 我们的直觉 直觉对进化是有利的 它帮助我们很快的进行 归纳和总结 帮助我们夸大我们所惧之事 当所惧之事没有发生时 我们就会寻找其中的因果关系 然后我们会获得莫名的自信 比如我们都自信自己是最好的司机 高于平均水平 每个人都会回答: 没错 我的车开的更好
11:15
好吧 这对进化来说是件好事 但是 当涉及到世界观时 这恰恰是导致结论颠倒的原因 有些趋势在上升而不是下降 有些则相反 在这个例子中 黑猩猩利用我们的直觉打败了我们 并且这逐渐成为了我们的弱点 而不是优势 这应该是我们的优势所在的 不是吗?
11:37
那么我们该如何解决这类问题呢? 首先 我们要进行衡量 然后我们再来纠正 这里指的衡量 是我们能够明白 造成无知的规律是什么 试运行是去年启动的 现在我们很肯定的是 在全球范围内 我们对许多东西是无知的 我们的想法是 将此扩展到关系到全球发展的所有领域 或者维度 比如气候 濒危物种 人权 性别平等 能源 金融 每个行业都会有一些真相 并有一些组织正在努力扩大 大众对于这些真相的认知度 所以我联系了其中的一些 像世界自然基金会 国际特赦组织 和联合国儿童基金会 我问他们 “有哪些你们所熟知的事 你认为公众是不知道的?”
12:28
好了 我收集到了如下事实 想像一下 一张很长的清单 大概列举了250项 然后我们对公众进行调查 由此知道哪些项目得分是最低的 然后我们获得了一个短一点的清单 其结果令人震惊 比如之前汉斯给出的一些例子 我们可以轻而易举的给出 这类令人震惊的结果 好了 对于这张短一点的清单 我们可以做些什么? 我们把它变成了一张“知识证书” 一张全球知识证书 可供你使用的 如果你是一个大型组织 一所学校 大学 或者新闻通讯社 用来验证你自己具有全球化的知识体系 本质上来说 我们不会聘用 那些得分和黑猩猩一样高的人 当然 你也不应该 所以也许10年之后 如果这个项目获得成功 你将不得不在面试中 写出这些全球知识
13:22
现在我们来谈谈实用的技巧 要如何才能做到? 当然 有一种方法 就是你通宵达旦的 阅读各种报告 并把所有的知识点都记在心里 实际上 这是不可能发生的 连汉斯都不会相信这种事情会发生 人们没那么多时间 人们喜欢捷径 现在 捷径来了 我们要再次把我们的直觉变成一种优势 我们要有能力去概括 现在我会给向家展示一些技巧 以此将误解转变成为 指导意见
13:58
我们从第一个误解开始 这是一个广泛流传的误解 所有的事都在朝更坏的方向发展 你听说过 你自己也是这么想的 从另一个角度想一想 其实大多数事情都在变好 所以当你面前出现了一个问题 而你不太确定答案时 你应该猜“进步” 好吗? 别选坏的那个 这会帮助你在我们的测试中获得更高的分数 (掌声) 这是第一点
14:26
穷人和富人之间的 贫富差距正在拉大 非常的不平等 是的 这是个不平等的世界 但是当你对照数据时 会发现只有一个驼峰 对吗? 所以如果你觉得不确定 就选“大部分人在中间” 这会帮助你正确的回答问题
14:42
现在 下一个先入为主的观点是 发达国家和人民需要在非常富裕的情况下 社会才能得以发展 例如让女孩子上学 或者抵御自然灾害 不不不 这是错误的 看 处于中间的那一大块驼峰 已经解决了女孩上学的问题 所以如果你不确定 就选 ”大部分已经实现了“ 例如电力 女性教育 这一类的问题 这些只是指导意见 所以并不适用于所有情况 但这能帮你进行总结概括
15:14
我们来看看最后一个 如果有什么 没错 这张照片很赞 鲨鱼很危险 其实不是 话虽不错 但是没那么严重 从全球的数据来看 这是我想说的 其实 我本人非常害怕鲨鱼 当我看到那些关于我所害怕的东西的提问时 比如地震 其他宗教 比如我害怕恐怖分子和鲨鱼 任何让我感到害怕的东西 你很有可能会夸大问题的严重性 这是指导意见之一 当然 有些危险的事物确实会造成严重的后果 因鲨鱼致死的人非常少 这才是你应有的思维方式
15:52
有了以上四条技巧 你很有可能会取得比黑猩猩更好的成绩 因为黑猩猩无法做到这些 他们无法总结概括这些技巧 希望我们能够改变你的世界 然后我们一起来打败黑猩猩 好吗 (掌声) 这是一个系统的方法
16:21
那么现在问题来了 这很重要吗 是的 这对理解贫穷 极端贫穷 以及如何与之斗争很重要 以及如何让女孩子们上学 当意识到这些问题实际正在改善时 我们才能理解这些问题本身 但是 会有人在意处于富裕一端的人吗 这很重要吗 我想说是的 非常非常重要 同样的理由 如果你对当今世界的认知是基于事实的 那么你才可能会有机会去预测 将来会发生什么
16:50
我们回过头来看1975年的这两个峰值 也就是我刚出生的时候 我选择了西方国家 也就是现在的欧盟和北美国家 我们来看看其他地区和西方国家的比较 关于富裕程度 这些是能够负担得起 坐飞机出国度假的人 1975年的时候 只有30%的人 是住在欧盟和北美以外的地区 但是情况已经变了 首先 我们来看看当今的情况 2014年 现在是一半一半 西方国家的统治在当今已经不复存在了 很好 那么接下去会发生什么呢? 你看到那个高峰了吗? 你看到它是如何变化的吗? 我做了一个小试验 我查看了国际货币基金组织的网站 他们对今后五年的GDP做了一个预测 所以我可以借此来推测未来5年的变化 假设各国的贫富差距保持不变 除此以外 我还做了进一步的预测 我用未来5年的数据对未来20年做了预测 同样的变化速度 就像一个实际很可能会发生的试验一样 让我们移步未来 2020年 57%来自非西方国家 2025年 63% 2030年 68% 到了2035年 西方国家在富裕消费者市场中的比例被赶超 这些仅仅是针对未来的GDP所作出的推测 73%的富裕消费者 将居住在北美和欧洲以外的地区 所以没错 我认为公司应该用“知识证书” 来确保未来能作出基于事实的决策
18:39
非常感谢 (掌声)
Comments (187)
Alexander Klar
Posted 3 years ago

Mr. Rosling and Mr. Rosling, thanks once again for a compelling insight into the world's status and trends.

Unfortunately this time I passionately disagree with your chart of the camel and the dromedar – mainly because of three reasons:

1. Your chart skews the real situation by using a logarithmic scale. Once you re-scale it to absolute figures one can see that not much has changed. The income distribution looks like a rat and has looked that way for the past decades. The greatest part of humans have low or very low income (the rat's head) and a small percentage have high income up to very, very high income (the rat's tail).

2. Income doesn't say a lot, when you ignore wealth; if you look at the wealth distribution (see link at the bottom) the growing inequality is easily seen.

3. The air plane ticket is a bad example since air plane tickets have gotten way cheaper over the past decades. Using this as an example of growing wealth only increases the effects of inflation that you apparently haven't taken into account either.

Please have a look at wealth distribution. There you can see that – by far – things are not getting better, they escalate, see this fine video of the situation in the US alone:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BhZ7cUFGDGc

J
Jessica C.
Posted 3 years ago

I agree with your general sentiment Alexander. If anyone is interested in wealth inequality in Canada here is a great video, it's not quite what is being represented by the IMF either:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBkBiv5ZD7s

Alexander Klar
Posted 3 years ago
In reply to:
I agree with your general sentiment Alexander. If anyone is interested in wealth inequality in Canada here is a great video, it's not quite what is being represented by the IMF either: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBkBiv5ZD7s
Jessica C.

Thank you for your comment and the great video link, Jessica!

I guess it looks similar all over the world. I was wondering and found this great video of a global view:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uWSxzjyMNpU

According to Oxfam (based on a report by Credit Suisse) the concentration has grown since the video was made: the 85 richest people on earth own as much as 3.5 billion people (half of the world's population) now:

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jan/20/oxfam-85-richest-people-half-of-the-world

NI
Nomenclatura Incorrecta
Posted 3 years ago

About the wealth distribution, did you use gapminder for that or your source is only that video? since the data of the video is fixed i guess is low accurate.

The part of the plane tickets its ambiguous since we dont know how he did measure that. ¿Does he actually have data indicating more tikcets bought by population or does he stablished that a certain Income Per Person the families begin to travel to vacation in planes?

Alexander Klar
Posted 3 years ago
In reply to:
About the wealth distribution, did you use gapminder for that or your source is only that video? since the data of the video is fixed i guess is low accurate. The part of the plane tickets its ambiguous since we dont know how he did measure that. ¿Does he actually have data indicating more tikcets bought by population or does he stablished that a certain Income Per Person the families begin to travel to vacation in planes?
Nomenclatura Incorrecta

Hi Nomenclatura,

I have used the graph the Rosling's are using in their talk and merely changed the scale of the x-axis.

If you want to look into the sources of the videos I linked to, you can find their links here:

http://youtu.be/BhZ7cUFGDGc?t=6m23s

... and here:

http://therules.org/inequality-video-fact-sheet/

The source of the Guardian article can be found here:

http://www.oxfam.org/sites/www.oxfam.org/files/bp-working-for-few-political-capture-economic-inequality-200114-summ-en.pdf

But Oxfam published an update to their study just recently. There it states that within this year the 1% of the richest people will come to own more wealth than the other 99% of humanity, see here:

http://policy-practice.oxfam.org.uk/publications/wealth-having-it-all-and-wanting-more-338125

NI
Nomenclatura Incorrecta
Posted 3 years ago
In reply to:
Hi Nomenclatura, I have used the graph the Rosling's are using in their talk and merely changed the scale of the x-axis. If you want to look into the sources of the videos I linked to, you can find their links here: http://youtu.be/BhZ7cUFGDGc?t=6m23s ... and here: http://therules.org/inequality-video-fact-sheet/ The source of the Guardian article can be found here: http://www.oxfam.org/sites/www.oxfam.org/files/bp-working-for-few-political-capture-economic-inequality-200114-summ-en.pdf But Oxfam published an update to their study just recently. There it states that within this year the 1% of the richest people will come to own more wealth than the other 99% of humanity, see here: http://policy-practice.oxfam.org.uk/publications/wealth-having-it-all-and-wanting-more-338125
Alexander Klar

I keep myself skeptic since with my current knowledge im unable to determine the real meanings of Income per Person increasing and Wealth distribution increasing too. Im just unable to interpret that

Alexander Klar
Posted 3 years ago
In reply to:
I keep myself skeptic since with my current knowledge im unable to determine the real meanings of Income per Person increasing and Wealth distribution increasing too. Im just unable to interpret that
Nomenclatura Incorrecta

Of course that's a very complex topic and a good one for a long and diverse discussion. My own interpretation is that the increase of income in the segment the Roslings are concentrating on in their talk is marginal, because the meaningful differences aren't between the low income and the moderate income (the two humps in their diagram), but between the mass of the people (literally 99%) when compared to the 1% of the richest people.

A current study done by Oxfam, based on numbers by Credit Suisse, forecasts that by the end of this year that 1% of people will own more of the wealth in the world than the rest of humanity. Or to put it differently: the wealth (the goods, infrastructure etc.) that we as a whole (including our ancestors) have produced, will be – in half – in the hands of 1% of us.

Since we cannot imagine such high concentration, Oxfam uses a different comparison: as of now the eighty richest people – in numbers: 80 persons – own more than the 3,500,000,000 people (half the world's population) on the other end of the scale.

One year ago these figures were 85 people vs. 3,500,000,000 people. So the tendency is clear.

In my opinion the mechanics of our current political (i.e. taxation) and economic (i.e. the financial market) systems both result in the concentration of power and money in the hands of fewer and fewer people.

NI
Nomenclatura Incorrecta
Posted 3 years ago
In reply to:
Of course that's a very complex topic and a good one for a long and diverse discussion. My own interpretation is that the increase of income in the segment the Roslings are concentrating on in their talk is marginal, because the meaningful differences aren't between the low income and the moderate income (the two humps in their diagram), but between the mass of the people (literally 99%) when compared to the 1% of the richest people. A current study done by Oxfam, based on numbers by Credit Suisse, forecasts that by the end of this year that 1% of people will own more of the wealth in the world than the rest of humanity. Or to put it differently: the wealth (the goods, infrastructure etc.) that we as a whole (including our ancestors) have produced, will be – in half – in the hands of 1% of us. Since we cannot imagine such high concentration, Oxfam uses a different comparison: as of now the eighty richest people – in numbers: 80 persons – own more than the 3,500,000,000 people (half the world's population) on the other end of the scale. One year ago these figures were 85 people vs. 3,500,000,000 people. So the tendency is clear. In my opinion the mechanics of our current political (i.e. taxation) and economic (i.e. the financial market) systems both result in the concentration of power and money in the hands of fewer and fewer people.
Alexander Klar

well, i woulnt blame system at all. roughly lets assume that there is not enough production for everyone, in other words, scarcity does exist (because world food production per capity is not enough ). So, in order for you to have certain produced resource, somebody else have to lack it. So, every smartphone represents austerity for someone else; every cheap food or vegetable represent fewer pay to the producer.


Then, the system itself its unable to do anything for scarcity since it depends on technology, only when technology improves a Post-scarcity system will be possible.


Now, this sounds perfect in my mind except for the money issue... for example if that 1% would spread all its money, everybody would have more money but that wont necessarily increase the production and people will have money but there will be no enough products to buy.., but that conclusion sound too reckless to me... damn, I understand so few about this

Here's what I feel is missing from the presentation: It implies that the bulk of wealth is distributed evenly, when truth is, there is consistent disparity. While a larger number of people in the world are able to afford the basics of life, the wealthiest among us have an absurd amount of income.

In many so-called "first world" nations, the wealthy billionaires amass wealth, leaving the rest to suffer economically, and while we have food to eat each day, the hopelessness is apparent, when we are not afforded the same opportunities for advancement, and when any financial emergency that arises has the ability to derail our livelihoods. In other words, the data shows that those in the most destitute of situations are improving and that is wonderful, yet the wealthy are continually hording more and more wealth, leaving so many of us more and more in positions of servitude and dependence upon them for our survival.

JC
Juliano Correa
Posted 3 years ago

The world is being turned into a big herd, that serves a very small group, with tendency to make everyone become virtual slaves, while they think they are free.

AB
Alan Bogusiewicz
Posted 3 years ago
In reply to:
Here's what I feel is missing from the presentation: It implies that the bulk of wealth is distributed evenly, when truth is, there is consistent disparity. While a larger number of people in the world are able to afford the basics of life, the wealthiest among us have an absurd amount of income. In many so-called "first world" nations, the wealthy billionaires amass wealth, leaving the rest to suffer economically, and while we have food to eat each day, the hopelessness is apparent, when we are not afforded the same opportunities for advancement, and when any financial emergency that arises has the ability to derail our livelihoods. In other words, the data shows that those in the most destitute of situations are improving and that is wonderful, yet the wealthy are continually hording more and more wealth, leaving so many of us more and more in positions of servitude and dependence upon them for our survival.
Jessica Mashael Bordelon AlMisbah

hey, you missed the point. Of course there is a lot of inequality and problems that exist in the world. They don't deny it. But the inequality is at it's lowest ever in history. The world is getting better and better.

JM
Julia Mitchell
Posted 3 years ago
In reply to:
hey, you missed the point. Of course there is a lot of inequality and problems that exist in the world. They don't deny it. But the inequality is at it's lowest ever in history. The world is getting better and better.
Alan Bogusiewicz

Alan,

I applaud your statistical enthusiasm, but the data speaks otherwise. In the aggregate, things are improving. But clearly, the dollar a day metric is an arbitrary proxy for poverty.

When we conflate the growth of those with a dollar a day with the Gini coefficient we are ripe for error. Without question there has been a shift in the OECD- growing disparity- alongside a few more dollars in the bottom quintile.

If this analogy helps, we are "throwing crumbs" at the problem.

AB
Alan Bogusiewicz
Posted 3 years ago
In reply to:
Alan, I applaud your statistical enthusiasm, but the data speaks otherwise. In the aggregate, things are improving. But clearly, the dollar a day metric is an arbitrary proxy for poverty. When we conflate the growth of those with a dollar a day with the Gini coefficient we are ripe for error. Without question there has been a shift in the OECD- growing disparity- alongside a few more dollars in the bottom quintile. If this analogy helps, we are "throwing crumbs" at the problem.
Julia Mitchell

Julia, 
I think you are the classic example of cognitive dissonance - changing your negative worldview would be too painful so you try really hard to twist the reality. I'm also not sure if you understand statistics very well. The facts are clear: hunger, poverty, inequality, wars are at its lowest ever in human history. There is still a lot of terrible problems and we need to address them but we are clearly doing something right here. If you don't like $ measurements, how about hunger? The amount of hungry people is decreasing too: 
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/28/world/united-nations-reports-global-hunger-down-since-1990.html?_r=0 
How about violence? - it's also at it's historical lowest: 
http://www.vox.com/2015/6/4/8725775/pinker-capitalism

In reply to:
Julia, I think you are the classic example of cognitive dissonance - changing your negative worldview would be too painful so you try really hard to twist the reality. I'm also not sure if you understand statistics very well. The facts are clear: hunger, poverty, inequality, wars are at its lowest ever in human history. There is still a lot of terrible problems and we need to address them but we are clearly doing something right here. If you don't like $ measurements, how about hunger? The amount of hungry people is decreasing too: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/28/world/united-nations-reports-global-hunger-down-since-1990.html?_r=0 How about violence? - it's also at it's historical lowest: http://www.vox.com/2015/6/4/8725775/pinker-capitalism
Alan Bogusiewicz

Alan it would seem most people who've commented on this video would agree that he is mistaken about the reality of disparity.

AB
Alan Bogusiewicz
Posted 3 years ago
In reply to:
Alan it would seem most people who've commented on this video would agree that he is mistaken about the reality of disparity.
Jessica Mashael Bordelon AlMisbah

Jessica, the fact that you base your understanding on how many people in the comment box disagrees with the presentation shows your complete lack of understanding of scientific method. Opinions don't matter, hard evidence matters. If you want to know the truth find sound evidence supporting your hypothesis. But actually, all the evidence shows that the humanity as a whole is in the best situation ever in terms of hunger and violence. You can't disprove that. 
The presenters didn't talk about ecological damage, all the data shows that in terms of ecology the world is getting worse and worse. We should focus on that, on the very thing they didn't speak about.

AV
Aske Vammen
Posted 3 years ago
In reply to:
Julia, I think you are the classic example of cognitive dissonance - changing your negative worldview would be too painful so you try really hard to twist the reality. I'm also not sure if you understand statistics very well. The facts are clear: hunger, poverty, inequality, wars are at its lowest ever in human history. There is still a lot of terrible problems and we need to address them but we are clearly doing something right here. If you don't like $ measurements, how about hunger? The amount of hungry people is decreasing too: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/28/world/united-nations-reports-global-hunger-down-since-1990.html?_r=0 How about violence? - it's also at it's historical lowest: http://www.vox.com/2015/6/4/8725775/pinker-capitalism
Alan Bogusiewicz

I'm not sure what Julia meant, but the very poor is getting less poor, yes. And the broad standard of living is also increasing, yes. But the wealth inequality between the very richest and the rest aren't improving. Whether that's a good or bad thing, is both a political and economic philosophy question but also a very complex matter.


And another thing that isn't improving is our consumption of fossil fuels. It's slightly decelerating, but it's not improving in absolute terms and neither when adjusted for population growth. Experts in this field broadly agree that this is a bad thing. And unfortunately, the entire idea of "standard of living" is based on energy consumption, so that's tough challenge.

I think the important message is that while many issues are generally trending positively, a few important ones still aren't. Not always positive enough, at least.

So I think I might disagree with Rosling's approach of changing intuition to optimism, since I'm not sure it's more important to get more answers right, at the sacrifice of getting some of the important ones wrong. One point I agree very much with though, is the shark one. Intuitively scary - but factually small - problems are far too exaggerated in the mainstream.

CL
Chris Laxton
Posted 3 years ago
In reply to:
Here's what I feel is missing from the presentation: It implies that the bulk of wealth is distributed evenly, when truth is, there is consistent disparity. While a larger number of people in the world are able to afford the basics of life, the wealthiest among us have an absurd amount of income. In many so-called "first world" nations, the wealthy billionaires amass wealth, leaving the rest to suffer economically, and while we have food to eat each day, the hopelessness is apparent, when we are not afforded the same opportunities for advancement, and when any financial emergency that arises has the ability to derail our livelihoods. In other words, the data shows that those in the most destitute of situations are improving and that is wonderful, yet the wealthy are continually hording more and more wealth, leaving so many of us more and more in positions of servitude and dependence upon them for our survival.
Jessica Mashael Bordelon AlMisbah

hey. look at the chart again. it in fact says EXACTLY what you are talking about...there are only a couple people at every end of that chart which are the richest people on earth. it is the smallest section on that chart. the biggest hump is in the middle. 10 bucks a day. that's not a lot of money comparatively speaking.

JW
John Wiles
Posted 4 years ago

Getting Better? Discuss some environmental parameters such as increasing threats to threatened and endangered species, loss of habitat, urbanization, deforestation, monoculture agriculture, increasing use of genetic modifications and chemicals, degradation of wetlands, the list goes on.

CJ
Chris Jensen
Posted 4 years ago

Agreed. In addition, past trends are not a good guide in the face of these problems. Eventually trends in environmental destruction have to bump up against other growth trends, at which point they will falter, making the final projection not very useful.

I sure hope I don't have to pass a question like that in order to get a job based on Ola's predictions.

Alan Henderson
Posted 4 years ago
In reply to:
Agreed. In addition, past trends are not a good guide in the face of these problems. Eventually trends in environmental destruction have to bump up against other growth trends, at which point they will falter, making the final projection not very useful. I sure hope I don't have to pass a question like that in order to get a job based on Ola's predictions.
Chris Jensen

Exactly. The Roslings have done some excellent work, but they've fallen into their own trap: relying on past knowledge to extrapolate future trends.

We cannot continue indefinitely to grow GDP (with its inherent resource consumption) in a finite world.

We're approaching the limits and sooner or later Dr Malthus will be redeemed.

Gabby -
Posted 4 years ago

I understood the purpose of the Roslings' presentation to be less about communicating the specifics of the graphs than to illustrate how people's beliefs of what is true are biased, with a particular cause being media that exaggerate the negative and sensational and another being a tendency to cling to out-of-date scenarios.

I know some listeners will be offended by the style of presentation, but if we can get past that to ask what we might take away as a useful question to ask ourselves, we would be wise to ask in particular cases whether our intuitions or the facts we hold to be true are, in fact, up to date and based on reliable current evidence. There is nothing to lose from asking ourselves this question and much to gain.

JH
James Hoy
Posted 4 years ago

Your comment hits the nail on the head. I would add it is equally important to ask questions of the information presented in the talk. If there is a bias we are all subject to it is the warm fuzzy feeling of things changing for the better.

LA
Larry Arnold
Posted 4 years ago
In reply to:
I understood the purpose of the Roslings' presentation to be less about communicating the specifics of the graphs than to illustrate how people's beliefs of what is true are biased, with a particular cause being media that exaggerate the negative and sensational and another being a tendency to cling to out-of-date scenarios. I know some listeners will be offended by the style of presentation, but if we can get past that to ask what we might take away as a useful question to ask ourselves, we would be wise to ask in particular cases whether our intuitions or the facts we hold to be true are, in fact, up to date and based on reliable current evidence. There is nothing to lose from asking ourselves this question and much to gain.
Gabby -

Exactly. I run into this almost every time I teach a class or give a talk. 

There's a perception in the U.S. (and from outside the U.S. about us) that the country is becoming more violent. Actually, U.S. violence by almost any measure has been dropping for two decades.

Unfortunately I don't get many "news" reporters in my classes.

FB
Frank Barry
Posted 4 years ago
In reply to:
Exactly. I run into this almost every time I teach a class or give a talk. There's a perception in the U.S. (and from outside the U.S. about us) that the country is becoming more violent. Actually, U.S. violence by almost any measure has been dropping for two decades. Unfortunately I don't get many "news" reporters in my classes.
Larry Arnold

Larry, you better check your arithmetic. 
Things change quickly when the Prisons are overstuffed and extra releases are mandated by the Supreme Court.

I hope you've counted the Collateral Damages from Obama's little killing and maiming drone missiles, and all his new Wars he keeps cranking up, while engaging in supporting revolts with mercenaries training in weapons and tactics at any of the three or four John Ashcroft led USTC training camps. Private contractor mercs used to be called Blackwater until they massacred 17 innocents in Iraq.

I can start naming the Wars if you'd like. Two decades, not hardly.

LA
Larry Arnold
Posted 4 years ago
In reply to:
Larry, you better check your arithmetic. Things change quickly when the Prisons are overstuffed and extra releases are mandated by the Supreme Court. I hope you've counted the Collateral Damages from Obama's little killing and maiming drone missiles, and all his new Wars he keeps cranking up, while engaging in supporting revolts with mercenaries training in weapons and tactics at any of the three or four John Ashcroft led USTC training camps. Private contractor mercs used to be called Blackwater until they massacred 17 innocents in Iraq. I can start naming the Wars if you'd like. Two decades, not hardly.
Frank Barry

Sorry if I wasn't clear. I was referring specifically to violent crime rates inside the U.S, which have been dropping since 1993. 
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/19/us/violent-crimes-declined-in-first-half-of-2013-fbi-says.html?_r=0

FB
Frank Barry
Posted 4 years ago
In reply to:
Sorry if I wasn't clear. I was referring specifically to violent crime rates inside the U.S, which have been dropping since 1993. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/19/us/violent-crimes-declined-in-first-half-of-2013-fbi-says.html?_r=0
Larry Arnold

Larry, your right about the FBI. 
But I have to wonder how they construct their statistics. Considering that most violent crimes are pled down to non-violent crimes in a rush to eliminate overcrowding in the prisons.

The United States has less than 5% of the world's population and 25% of the world's prisoners*. The following are the factors leading to the decreases in Violent Crimes since records were started in 1973. 
Impact on these Crimes Homicide Violent Property
Strong economy High
Changing demographics High High
Concealed weapons laws High High High
Increased prison population High High High
% due to these factors 36% 33.50% 31.50%

The one factor that dominates all others in terms of predicted impact on crime in this earlier period is the growth in the prison population. Between 1973 and 1991, the incarceration rate exploded upwards, rising from 96 to 313 per 100,000 US citizens in 1991, and soaring to 
an unthinkable 716* per100,000 US citizens as of October 2013.

The incarceration rate in the United States of America is the highest in the world. Imprisonment of America's 2.5 million prisoners, costing $24,000 to $30,000 per prisoner per year, and $6 billion in new prison construction, consumes over $70 billion in Taxed Payer Dollars.

Prison populations are today at an average, a staggering 130% of available space, which means that they are unhealthy places for prisoners to live.

*This doesn't include the Extraordinary Rendition prisoners of the last three President's, Clinton, Bush, and Obama.

FB
Frank Barry
Posted 4 years ago
In reply to:
I understood the purpose of the Roslings' presentation to be less about communicating the specifics of the graphs than to illustrate how people's beliefs of what is true are biased, with a particular cause being media that exaggerate the negative and sensational and another being a tendency to cling to out-of-date scenarios. I know some listeners will be offended by the style of presentation, but if we can get past that to ask what we might take away as a useful question to ask ourselves, we would be wise to ask in particular cases whether our intuitions or the facts we hold to be true are, in fact, up to date and based on reliable current evidence. There is nothing to lose from asking ourselves this question and much to gain.
Gabby -

Hans is dedicated to proving the world is improving. 
The problem is that we live today in a dangerous mixed bag.

Seems the US's geographical government decided to forgo their constitutional responsibilities once they replaced Isolationism with an 'admitted foreign policy' of Regime Change and Non-stop Warring upon other nation's shores. That decision alone gives Hans and Ola a tough job constructing a complete set of statistics when the last 100 years has brought serfdom, slavery, and peasants to the top, and into view of everyone with a computer. Even in the United States, fully 47% are poor enough to require 'food stamps'. World-wide a total of 180 Elite Individuals have 95% of the wealth.

You may be questioning my stats, but they are a heck of a lot better than Hans and Ola's.

RG
Randy Goff
Posted 4 years ago

Mr. Rosling - I disagree. Your premise is ignorance, but the ignorance that you test for is simply the viewpoint and statistical support you hold. The Poverty that you claim has been cut in half is based on $1 per day. The statistics of today ALSO are:

In all, 2.4 billion people lived on less than US $2 a day in 2010, the average poverty line in developing countries and another common measurement of deep deprivation. That is only a slight decline from 2.59 billion in 1981.

Statistics are so malleable. Knowledge or ignorance of your particular set does not define "Ignorance of the World." Just of your world.

AS
Amos Schrum
Posted 4 years ago

Yeah but you have to keep in mind that the population grew. So while absolute numbers may have stayed more or less the same, the relative numbers paint a diffrent picture. Of course one can argue that absolute numbers a equally important and should not be discarded so quickly...

Gord G
Posted 4 years ago

Sorry…it's not very clear…is the 2nd world war considered a natural disaster? Women in school … when… where … this question is so vague it's non-sensical.

The questions asked were decidedly lacking decisive probing but rather seem to be leaning toward the results the research funding was hoping to expose.

What is the bias of measurement?

Chimps? If you ask an amoeba a question based on what you believe it's communicating…then I'm certain it will verify expensive research.

This is the most ridiculous talk I've heard on Ted.

[btw…shoulder pads were popular among women in the 1980s]

CJ
Cheenu Jey
Posted 4 years ago

I absolutely love Hans Rosling's presentation and his delivery style.

However, I was flabbergasted by the claims he made on poverty.

GDP per capita studies show great improvement of financial status worldwide, notably because of the "1%" which now has an astronomical slice of the pie.

Wealth/income distribution studies show a much different picture which shows a clearer trend in the majority's loss of income/wealth over the past 40-50 years.

Then Ola Rosling drops the "bomb" (at 18 mins 35), which I suspected all along. They use GDP per capita to talk about their "improvements" in financial status.

They use World Bank figures. Checking what the WB says about its own figures: (i) they grossly underestimated the improvement of people in poor countries; (ii) they estimate that 2.4 billion people in the world live on LESS than 2 USD per day (this is 33% of the 7.2 billion people we are today) (Ref: http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/poverty/overview).

I don't know what Rosling & Rosling consider "extreme poverty" or anybody else, but 2 USD per day (730 USD per year) is not "dirt poor"? By any standards in any country?

I was hoping somehow that researchers of this caliber would research the topic more thoroughly and let the "data set change their mind set".

Using GDP per capita is WRONG in terms of financial well-being!

Example: In Year 1, 5 people earn 10 widgets each, 7 widgets are needed in order for individuals to live "comfortably". Everyone earns 30% more than is needed (savings, further comforts, saving for pensions, etc).

In Year 2, one person earns 20 widgets, one 15 widgets, two earn 7 and one 6. Widgets per capita says that the people in the country have improved by 10%. Looking at the distribution, 2 are living a luxury life, 2 just scrape through (with no buffer in case anything goes wrong) and one struggles.

Unfortunately, the lop-sided income distribution in the current world is MUCH more lop-sided than the example I gave above.

CS
Christoph Stanek
Posted 4 years ago

I agree with your point, that GDP per capita is a unsuitable measurement. However, Wealth/Income Distribution is as well. Someone who earns money for a decent living but is not contributing anything for buildung up wealth gets automatically drawn down in this kind of measurement. Also, the WB is not really relieable, and your "feeling" of what is poverty is not as well.

An interesting fact is, that the WB "corrected" their poverty studies form the line of 1$ per day as limit for extreme poverty to 2$ per day, which in an increase of 100%. Just for the scaling: When did you ever received a raise of 100% in your job? But the WB has an interest to paint a pretty dark picture. Of course, 2$ per day is a ridiculous amount for you and me, but this does not change the fact, that you can have a diet of more than 2.000 kcal in the regarding countries for less than 1$ per day. So people affected by this have the possibility to feed themselves and with that they are able to work properly and thus increase their wealth over time. Countries this regards to are for example india, indonesia and so on.

A good measurement for the increasing wealth on this planet is the average life expectancy. Because when you get enough money to keep you healthy, you will get older. And also a incredibly rich top 1% cannot make up the results of the lower 99% as you only can out-live them for a minimal amount of years.

And suprise! people in the whole world are getting older. This is sign for improving life standards of all people, not just a "top" 1% (which, btw, according to different sources owns 40% of all wealth, or 10%, or 90% or which number is suitable).

The goal for this presentation was to clear the view. Not everything in this world is as pitchblack as we see it. I know some countries where it is "en vogue" to feel guilty about everything that goes wrong in this world. But this povery porn isn't helping the least bit.

CJ
Cheenu Jey
Posted 3 years ago
In reply to:
I agree with your point, that GDP per capita is a unsuitable measurement. However, Wealth/Income Distribution is as well. Someone who earns money for a decent living but is not contributing anything for buildung up wealth gets automatically drawn down in this kind of measurement. Also, the WB is not really relieable, and your "feeling" of what is poverty is not as well. An interesting fact is, that the WB "corrected" their poverty studies form the line of 1$ per day as limit for extreme poverty to 2$ per day, which in an increase of 100%. Just for the scaling: When did you ever received a raise of 100% in your job? But the WB has an interest to paint a pretty dark picture. Of course, 2$ per day is a ridiculous amount for you and me, but this does not change the fact, that you can have a diet of more than 2.000 kcal in the regarding countries for less than 1$ per day. So people affected by this have the possibility to feed themselves and with that they are able to work properly and thus increase their wealth over time. Countries this regards to are for example india, indonesia and so on. A good measurement for the increasing wealth on this planet is the average life expectancy. Because when you get enough money to keep you healthy, you will get older. And also a incredibly rich top 1% cannot make up the results of the lower 99% as you only can out-live them for a minimal amount of years. And suprise! people in the whole world are getting older. This is sign for improving life standards of all people, not just a "top" 1% (which, btw, according to different sources owns 40% of all wealth, or 10%, or 90% or which number is suitable). The goal for this presentation was to clear the view. Not everything in this world is as pitchblack as we see it. I know some countries where it is "en vogue" to feel guilty about everything that goes wrong in this world. But this povery porn isn't helping the least bit.
Christoph Stanek

You make some interesting points, notably of the WB's parti pris in regards to world poverty.

However, being of half Indian origin and still having family there, I can assure you with the top side estimation of 2 USD a day and at current XR, 45k rupees doesn't take you anywhere else than subsistence level, impervious of India being declared the "cheapest" country to live in, as of late. There is no need to mention an increase in "wealth" because there is no accumulation of this. All financial resources are being used for daily subsistence.

The 20th Century is not a very good indicator of the relationship of health and wealth increases being associated. The biggest part of the increased life expectancy has been the eradication of known childhood diseases which severely biased the "average" downwards. Statistical inference which disregards the children which died before the age of 10 show little variation in the life expectancy then to now. It is the lack (or significant decrease) of child deaths that has caused this. And this is definitely not due to increases in personal wealth as much as it was due to health and disease eradication programs.

JB
Joan Bresling
Posted 4 years ago
In reply to:
I absolutely love Hans Rosling's presentation and his delivery style. However, I was flabbergasted by the claims he made on poverty. GDP per capita studies show great improvement of financial status worldwide, notably because of the "1%" which now has an astronomical slice of the pie. Wealth/income distribution studies show a much different picture which shows a clearer trend in the majority's loss of income/wealth over the past 40-50 years. Then Ola Rosling drops the "bomb" (at 18 mins 35), which I suspected all along. They use GDP per capita to talk about their "improvements" in financial status. They use World Bank figures. Checking what the WB says about its own figures: (i) they grossly underestimated the improvement of people in poor countries; (ii) they estimate that 2.4 billion people in the world live on LESS than 2 USD per day (this is 33% of the 7.2 billion people we are today) (Ref: http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/poverty/overview). I don't know what Rosling & Rosling consider "extreme poverty" or anybody else, but 2 USD per day (730 USD per year) is not "dirt poor"? By any standards in any country? I was hoping somehow that researchers of this caliber would research the topic more thoroughly and let the "data set change their mind set". Using GDP per capita is WRONG in terms of financial well-being! Example: In Year 1, 5 people earn 10 widgets each, 7 widgets are needed in order for individuals to live "comfortably". Everyone earns 30% more than is needed (savings, further comforts, saving for pensions, etc). In Year 2, one person earns 20 widgets, one 15 widgets, two earn 7 and one 6. Widgets per capita says that the people in the country have improved by 10%. Looking at the distribution, 2 are living a luxury life, 2 just scrape through (with no buffer in case anything goes wrong) and one struggles. Unfortunately, the lop-sided income distribution in the current world is MUCH more lop-sided than the example I gave above.
Cheenu Jey

As Cristoph says it's a valid point, but it's of relatively limited importance considering the message of the video is still correct if you change the statistics used into something more accurate/representative.

It makes you wonder if they used a simplified model to better convey the message and how they decided against other methods.

CA
Caner Akça
Posted 4 years ago

This is the most ridiculous talk I have heard on Ted. Purchasing power of 1 dolar changes in 40 years. We can't just say that we earn more money than 1975 so we were getting richer. Also these statistics are biased. They count world war 2 as natural disasters which obviously they shouldn't. Statistics can be deceptive. They say that the gap between poor and rich are close. However, it isn't. When they calculate gpa, they add bill gates money to lets say 1 million poor people money and then divide it to 1 million and 1. Is this show us that those 1 million people getting richer ?We should ask ourselves to that question, How many people around us is happy with their income and do they maintaince their living standarts with this income. These statistics and graphics is far a head to reflect the truth. If we really want to undertand powerty, we should go to street and observe ordinary people lives and try to understand their perspectives. This talk neither satisfy my expectations nor the reality of the world. I really want to talk Ola and Hans Rosling about this presentation cause there are lots of things that they should think of when they do such researcs but unfortunately I they didn't.

JH
Jochen Van Hoyweghen
Posted 4 years ago

Hello, thanks for sharing your opinion with us. I didn’t notice the difference in value of the money in 1975 compared to 2014 at all. There is one thing I don’t understand: You said that they included the deaths of World War 2 in the number of deaths by natural disaster. But the graph started lowering in 1940. I did notice that the graph increased during 1914 – 1918. Now my question is: Did you mean World War 1 or World War 2? If I made a mistake in my reasoning, feel free to correct me.

SB
Susan Bearry
Posted 4 years ago
In reply to:
This is the most ridiculous talk I have heard on Ted. Purchasing power of 1 dolar changes in 40 years. We can't just say that we earn more money than 1975 so we were getting richer. Also these statistics are biased. They count world war 2 as natural disasters which obviously they shouldn't. Statistics can be deceptive. They say that the gap between poor and rich are close. However, it isn't. When they calculate gpa, they add bill gates money to lets say 1 million poor people money and then divide it to 1 million and 1. Is this show us that those 1 million people getting richer ?We should ask ourselves to that question, How many people around us is happy with their income and do they maintaince their living standarts with this income. These statistics and graphics is far a head to reflect the truth. If we really want to undertand powerty, we should go to street and observe ordinary people lives and try to understand their perspectives. This talk neither satisfy my expectations nor the reality of the world. I really want to talk Ola and Hans Rosling about this presentation cause there are lots of things that they should think of when they do such researcs but unfortunately I they didn't.
Caner Akça

He mentioned WWII only as a point of reference in time. Deaths due to the war were not included in the statistics.

JB
Joan Bresling
Posted 4 years ago
In reply to:
This is the most ridiculous talk I have heard on Ted. Purchasing power of 1 dolar changes in 40 years. We can't just say that we earn more money than 1975 so we were getting richer. Also these statistics are biased. They count world war 2 as natural disasters which obviously they shouldn't. Statistics can be deceptive. They say that the gap between poor and rich are close. However, it isn't. When they calculate gpa, they add bill gates money to lets say 1 million poor people money and then divide it to 1 million and 1. Is this show us that those 1 million people getting richer ?We should ask ourselves to that question, How many people around us is happy with their income and do they maintaince their living standarts with this income. These statistics and graphics is far a head to reflect the truth. If we really want to undertand powerty, we should go to street and observe ordinary people lives and try to understand their perspectives. This talk neither satisfy my expectations nor the reality of the world. I really want to talk Ola and Hans Rosling about this presentation cause there are lots of things that they should think of when they do such researcs but unfortunately I they didn't.
Caner Akça

You're missing the point.

You can gather a group to figure out the most relevant and correct statistics, debate it for hours, then use the choice for this lecture. The result is the same. Extreme poverty has declined a /lot/ the last 100 years, and people answer incorrectly when faced with the question. Why? And how do we avoid it?

They don't say it's "close", they say it's a "hump". It is. Research for two hours or two weeks if you want and display your results here. You'll arrive at it being a hump.

Also realize if you can research something and need a very informed opinion, no one is arguing against doing that. Not the Roslings either. The tricks are to highlight the tendency in human intuition, and what a more realistic tendency (that is as simple as the human intuition) would look like.

Can you see the point of highlighting that?

D
Dave C
Posted 4 years ago

I have very serious doubts about the accuracy of the data used in this presentation. If you look at the graph for deaths by natural disasters per year @2:20

The data for the last 30-40 years is clearly well below the 100,000 people per year line in every year.

Which is strange considering

1970, Bhola Cyclone killed 500,000-1,000,000 
1975, Typhoon nina killed 230,000 
1976, Tangshan earthquake killed 250,000-650,000 
2004, Sumatra earthquake and tsunami killed 280,000 
2005, the Karachi earthquake killed 100,000 
2008, Cyclone Nargis killed 140,000 and the Sichuan earthquake killed 80,000 
2010, Haiti earthquake killed 220,000

How can there be so many people dead in these single events yet your data for the entire year, worldwide is showing only 10%-20% of those fatalities?

Could Hans or Ola explain this please?

Z
ZIH-JIE WANG
Posted 4 years ago

Your doubts are my doubts, too. 
But the 2004 Sumatra earthquake didn't kill 280,000 people, 
from the wiki, it says that was about 1,300 people.

D
Dave C
Posted 4 years ago
In reply to:
Your doubts are my doubts, too. But the 2004 Sumatra earthquake didn't kill 280,000 people, from the wiki, it says that was about 1,300 people.
ZIH-JIE WANG

Ok, fair point, most of the deaths were due to the Tsunami caused by the earthquake. I'll edit my post to make that clear thanks.

Z
ZIH-JIE WANG
Posted 4 years ago
In reply to:
Ok, fair point, most of the deaths were due to the Tsunami caused by the earthquake. I'll edit my post to make that clear thanks.
Dave C

Oh...Sorry, I found that I went wrong on it, the one I saw is the 2005 Sumatra earthquake. You are right, though.

KA
Kari Alatalo
Posted 4 years ago
In reply to:
I have very serious doubts about the accuracy of the data used in this presentation. If you look at the graph for deaths by natural disasters per year @2:20 The data for the last 30-40 years is clearly well below the 100,000 people per year line in every year. Which is strange considering 1970, Bhola Cyclone killed 500,000-1,000,000 1975, Typhoon nina killed 230,000 1976, Tangshan earthquake killed 250,000-650,000 2004, Sumatra earthquake and tsunami killed 280,000 2005, the Karachi earthquake killed 100,000 2008, Cyclone Nargis killed 140,000 and the Sichuan earthquake killed 80,000 2010, Haiti earthquake killed 220,000 How can there be so many people dead in these single events yet your data for the entire year, worldwide is showing only 10%-20% of those fatalities? Could Hans or Ola explain this please?
Dave C

I totally agree. Most countries lie about those numbers. 
Even Russia skews their natural disaster reports and covers up the actual bodies, yet the locals get to see corpses being transported by the military out by the truckloads. 
Considering the increased world population, it's highly unlikely those numbers have gone down.

JM
Jake Marzipan
Posted 4 years ago

Time to apply that "emotional reaction probably exaggerated something" concept. While I loved the presentation, there's a representational issue leaving me unconvinced of the wealth equality point. Specifically, the graphic used presents the distance between 1 and 10 to be the exact same as the distance between 10 and 100. I maybe wrong, but this seems mathematically false. The graphic should show what's called a "right-skewed distribution" in statistics. That is, the hump should have a long tale trailing off to the right to the largest data point. The reason for that is to show a distribution including each actual data point. Presenting the data like this makes it seem like things are more equal than they actually are, because it makes the data look like a normal (symmetrical) distribution, meaning the number of people to the left of average (below average) is equal to the number of people to the right of average (above average). What was shown is blatant false representation, especially when the data is refocused to show the actual concentration of wealth. I forget the documentary that expounds on this, it's either Maxed Out of Spurlock's series called 30 Days, but that a narrow range of people better imitates a normal distribution than before does not imply the level of wealth equality we currently have is really much of an improvement.

FD
Federico Decara
Posted 4 years ago

You know it is a logarithmic scale, right? 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logarithmic_scale

JM
Jake Marzipan
Posted 4 years ago
In reply to:
You know it is a logarithmic scale, right? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logarithmic_scale
Federico Decara

-slow claps- Very good. And using multipliers in a skewed distribution artificially shrinks the length of the graph; therefore, doing so obscures the actual scale of the data, vis-à-vis, my criticism. In other words, it makes this: 
(-------|-------------------------------------------------) 
look like this: 
(-------|-------) 
Though, statistically, they're they same, assuming proper labeling. The "|" denotes the median. I mean, sure, like pie charts, it's a way to represent data, but, like pie charts, it's a very poor choice, as it's harder for people to grasp what they're actually seeing. Besides, there's only 3 data points graphed, 1, 10, and 100, containing all data. That's hardly something that needs a logarithmic representation. Plus, it doesn't show any notation for the order of magnitude.

You are, of course, free to pat yourself on the back for over already knowing how the data was represented, but there's an important reason why, at least in the US, we value face validity. If it takes undue interpretive steps to understand how and why data is represented as it is, each superlative step away from easily recognizable depictions is an opportunity for either deception or misinterpretation, things I'd assume would be a focus in a TedTalk dedicated to addressing ignorance.

EC
Estrella Claramunt
Posted a year ago

Such an interesting speach! It's curious how deeply confused we are about the global situation.

But, anyway, I don't think that's a reason to be 'optimistic' about the future. This attitude skips the growing inequality in many countries (even in the 'developed ones') as a result of the crisis and could be used to rest the importance it has to keep working on a better world. And it's true that we're, most of us, great ignorants, but the solution is not to just be positive.

JA
Jan Angevine
Posted 4 years ago

I felt this presentation provided simplistic information that corrupts the entire idea of examining and knowing. Knowing requires engagement with the ideas being considered. The knowing is not solved with four catchy "tricks" that Ola suggested for overcoming ignorance. And the whole chimp conceit is old school and boring. These elites who can afford $4,200 to $17,000 tickets to a TED Conference, seem happy to find that the world is all just fine. Phew! Now they don't have to do much of anything, because it's all going so well, especially for them! Optimism is a crucial and necessary human quality, but fuzzy Pollyanna statistics about subjects of decreasing relevance only distracts from the crucial work that urgently needs to be done. Saving the planet, for example, feeding the exponentially growing population, contending with declining resources such as minerals, water, traditional food, clean air, the ocean's fish, our wildlife, bees, butterflies, the glaciers. I could go on. I surmise, though, that the Roslings may prefer that we remain ignorant of these problems in favor of simply keeping spirits up. What a disservice. Annie Dillard gives this advice: "You have enough experience by the time you're five years old. What you need is the library. What you have to learn is the best of what is being thought and said. If you had a choice between spending a summer in Nepal and spending a summer in the library, go to the library."- `Mornings Like This`, c.1995. But, I guess that's not catchy.

JG
Josvé Guevara
Posted 4 years ago

You're missing the point. The thing is about asking the right questions. He's spot on about the "Personal bias/Outdated facts/News bias" thing, and we need to overcome that in order to properly attack the problems that you suggest. It's not about being optimistic in the real world, that's just the way they decided to convey their ideas. Read about teaching methods.

CS
Christoph Stanek
Posted 4 years ago
In reply to:
I felt this presentation provided simplistic information that corrupts the entire idea of examining and knowing. Knowing requires engagement with the ideas being considered. The knowing is not solved with four catchy "tricks" that Ola suggested for overcoming ignorance. And the whole chimp conceit is old school and boring. These elites who can afford $4,200 to $17,000 tickets to a TED Conference, seem happy to find that the world is all just fine. Phew! Now they don't have to do much of anything, because it's all going so well, especially for them! Optimism is a crucial and necessary human quality, but fuzzy Pollyanna statistics about subjects of decreasing relevance only distracts from the crucial work that urgently needs to be done. Saving the planet, for example, feeding the exponentially growing population, contending with declining resources such as minerals, water, traditional food, clean air, the ocean's fish, our wildlife, bees, butterflies, the glaciers. I could go on. I surmise, though, that the Roslings may prefer that we remain ignorant of these problems in favor of simply keeping spirits up. What a disservice. Annie Dillard gives this advice: "You have enough experience by the time you're five years old. What you need is the library. What you have to learn is the best of what is being thought and said. If you had a choice between spending a summer in Nepal and spending a summer in the library, go to the library."- `Mornings Like This`, c.1995. But, I guess that's not catchy.
Jan Angevine

I have the feeling, that you didn't understand this presentation at all. It is about that the situation of the world is not only driven by "devasting" problems but that also the huge successes we made are an important part. Obviously, you choose to ignore this. And this is called ignorance.

JA
Jan Angevine
Posted 4 years ago
In reply to:
I have the feeling, that you didn't understand this presentation at all. It is about that the situation of the world is not only driven by "devasting" problems but that also the huge successes we made are an important part. Obviously, you choose to ignore this. And this is called ignorance.
Christoph Stanek

I think you have confused "ignorance" with the idea of another point of view. As one who celebrates the "huge successes" of the world, it is sad that your bring to this forum one of the huge failures of the world---intolerance of opposing ideas.

AH
Arno Hayes
Posted 4 years ago

It's all great. But I could not help but be a little bit negative when I took my final take on the projection.

20 years from now there will still be people living on under a dollar. And Airplanes better become much less polluting.

Sorry for that.

C
CK JAGUAR
Posted 4 years ago

This Ted Talk should include a warning label to let liberals and progressives know the content is offensive to their beliefs and not acceptable for public consumption.

H
H W
Posted a year ago

The talk is inspiring, but... About the rest catching up with the west, how about the number without China? To me, it is more like China is catching up with the west.

I remember reading in the news that poverty population world wide drops, but only because China develops. Taking China out of the equation, the poverty population stays unchanged.

So it is hard to be not ignorant about the world after all, isn't it?

WW
Wil Wright
Posted 2 years ago

I'm shocked that in the multiple choice questions, not many people got them right! I was expecting more people to be a little more open-minded to be honest.

TG
T. Grant
Posted 3 years ago

I love this talk, and others like it by Hans Rosling.

It is shocking to me that people in first world countries have let themselves become convinced that they are suffering horribly, and that things are "going to hell in a handbasket."

Try living even 150 years ago (before running water, germ theory, an understanding of weather systems, electricity, vaccinations and a million and one inventions). Go primitive camping for 2 weeks.

This presentation was much-needed relief from the usual doom and gloom that has pervaded our collective consciousness (not to mention the "end is near" nonsense that has been shouted by so many since Y2K).

ET
Enrico Tessadro
Posted 3 years ago

I like people that don't act and think like the "mass": this is why I liked the talks, this is why I appreciate in general TED. Just one thing; I think this approach can workonly for few extremely general topic. And I think that to solve problem such asa inequality or poverty is also extremely importnt to watch what we can change by ourselves. So thanks for the useful insight and the great tool that you're giving us, but I think that a bigger problem is made by people that knows general trend and don't do nothing to use/leverage/change it.

DH
Dan Hamilton
Posted 3 years ago

I disagree that the assumptions have anything to do with removing ignorance. things don't always improve. air quality is getting worse ,global warming is getting worse. "improving" is a subjective term, he is making an assumption that question makers will only focus on things that are getting better.

In my own opinion ignorance exists because people want it to exist, it is commonly about ignoring your own reality and refusing to accept the facts. It is a defence mechanism used by people to hold back negative emotions that are caused by our reality.

Humans can see that there is mass injustice in the world, for example: people holding supreme status over others, people holding positions of self proclaimed authority, racism, sexism, ageism, objectification, mass animal abuse, bitching, resource inequality, mass poverty, mass habitat destruction for all animals, child abuse, partner abuse, verbal abuse, restrictions on the movement of races and their access to resources. imprisonment of the ill. restrictions on responsible freedom of movement and expression.I could go on.

Many of OUR daily actions in developed countries cause these things to happen or aid others who cause this to happen.

Ignorance is strongest on the subject of injustice/suffering.

Humans naturally do not like viewing suffering so must adopt BS stories/facts to create a new version of reality in their minds where they are not responsible for suffering. 
Ignorance is the chosen state of mind for the masses so that they do not have to accept facts that make them responsible for bad things. They can be happy about their daily lives without changing.

If people wish to achieve consciousness (as an opposite of ignorance), you must focus on thinking as much about the changeable negative elements in your reality as you do the good elements, you must think about why things make you feel bad. 
Ask yourself how would I solve this and how do my actions aid injustice? then you will be more open to truths.

PL
Phan Lương
Posted 4 years ago

I really like this talk. I think its importance is that we must have faith in improvements, so that we can contribute to a better world. If you lived in Vietnam, you would see people whining and complaining about a worse society everyday. Most of them just ignore the fact that the living conditions become better and better, despite occasional bad things (which just happen in any places in the world). And because of their negative belief towards the society, they refuse to contribute to boost it up ("nah, what can I do, oh, the society these days, oh, so bad, oh, what a mess, oh, let's just steal because everyone is doing the same thing, oh...").

SB
Syed Hasan Shahid Bukhari
Posted 4 years ago

Roslings ... Wouldn't you feel derogated ... offended ... if I treated you 2, as "Numbers" ... in a Statistical graph ... demonstrating # 1, and #2's numerical prowess ... a certain Awareness ... of a certain facet, of Reality ?

Don't you think ... Numbers and Statistics, do not apply, to Humans ... Because, there's much more to "The Human" ... than, mere graphics and figures ...

Numbers and Graphics ... are a device, to keep a tab, on very tiny ... infinitesimally small, figures ... That these Stats and Figures are essentially Economics related ... vis a vis ... An Ambition V/s the Division of Resources related, numbers and graphs ...

That ... Human's Existence ... is not ... in isolation ... It is within ... and relates ... a mathematically incalculable, a Graphically indemonstrable ... Figure !

AL
Angelica Landström
Posted 4 years ago

I can't answer for him, but I will answer for me because I think this is an important question to consider. 
I think it is great that we can look at ourselves from an overview, AND from a personal one. 
I can in my life make decisions that help others, I can meet people and connect with them - that is more than numbers and graphs, that is personal and something infinitely big and precious. On a personal level, for me and the people I meet, this is important. In that meeting those people can give something to me and I can give something to them. 
But in my life there will never be enough time, enough people to meet, enough lives to enrich, enough lives to enrich my life. I can make the world a bigger place, which is fulfilling to me and valuable to others. 
And also, it will be slow. I am one person, and one small person can indeed cause something big, I do not doubt that. But what if I had help? What if I had numbers and graphs to make me see what things in a larger scheme, help people the best? Give them food on the table, longer lives. Even, in some sense, happier lives. What if I could help not just the people I meet and get to know, but people I will never meet? Just by knowing how I can make a difference, maybe contributing to building a well somewhere because I've seen the numbers, how many people in that place is in need of clean water close by, seen the expected result of clean water will give? In the end that is an economic decision, because I looked at the numbers, don't know the people it can help. But I choose to look at those numbers because I want to help the people behind them. 
Economy about people is not just about numbers, it is always about the people behind the numbers. Because I will always know that they are there.

SB
Syed Hasan Shahid Bukhari
Posted 4 years ago
In reply to:
I can't answer for him, but I will answer for me because I think this is an important question to consider. I think it is great that we can look at ourselves from an overview, AND from a personal one. I can in my life make decisions that help others, I can meet people and connect with them - that is more than numbers and graphs, that is personal and something infinitely big and precious. On a personal level, for me and the people I meet, this is important. In that meeting those people can give something to me and I can give something to them. But in my life there will never be enough time, enough people to meet, enough lives to enrich, enough lives to enrich my life. I can make the world a bigger place, which is fulfilling to me and valuable to others. And also, it will be slow. I am one person, and one small person can indeed cause something big, I do not doubt that. But what if I had help? What if I had numbers and graphs to make me see what things in a larger scheme, help people the best? Give them food on the table, longer lives. Even, in some sense, happier lives. What if I could help not just the people I meet and get to know, but people I will never meet? Just by knowing how I can make a difference, maybe contributing to building a well somewhere because I've seen the numbers, how many people in that place is in need of clean water close by, seen the expected result of clean water will give? In the end that is an economic decision, because I looked at the numbers, don't know the people it can help. But I choose to look at those numbers because I want to help the people behind them. Economy about people is not just about numbers, it is always about the people behind the numbers. Because I will always know that they are there.
Angelica Landström

Angelica ... Your 'overview' of the subject ... and its Moral direction, are both correct ...

But in an holistic perspective ... Thus far, humans have successfully adapted to their environment ... whatever the environment be ...

Why ? ... Because, Adaptation is synonymous with human Survival !

That's why, and how, our precursors survived, since they adapted to their environment; successfully ... That exponential increase in our numbers, hence, existence of over 7 billion humans, is sufficient proof, of the validity of my belief ...

That Economics, is a 'modern' developing Demi-Science ... it arrived with Adam Smith ... But, he talks about 'the Wealth of Nations' ... the Politics, of Economics ... not of people, you refer to ...

That Adam Smith's approach to the 'human' ... is Machiavellian ... that it's via the Macro-Political perspective of Wealth, evaluated on the basis of Supply and Demand conditions ... as faced collectively, by Nations ... not Humans, or humanity !

That later, John Maynard Keynes, refined Adam Smith's Macro-Political, within his Micro-Human Ambition ... that's when, and where, humans became numbers ... and it goes on ...

What Smith, Keynes, Paul Samuelson and latter-day Economists and present day Nobel Laureates, talk about, is essentially Maths and Stats ... showing total detachment from human Reality ... affected by absurd numbers !

DD
Don Diehl
Posted 4 years ago
In reply to:
Roslings ... Wouldn't you feel derogated ... offended ... if I treated you 2, as "Numbers" ... in a Statistical graph ... demonstrating # 1, and #2's numerical prowess ... a certain Awareness ... of a certain facet, of Reality ? Don't you think ... Numbers and Statistics, do not apply, to Humans ... Because, there's much more to "The Human" ... than, mere graphics and figures ... Numbers and Graphics ... are a device, to keep a tab, on very tiny ... infinitesimally small, figures ... That these Stats and Figures are essentially Economics related ... vis a vis ... An Ambition V/s the Division of Resources related, numbers and graphs ... That ... Human's Existence ... is not ... in isolation ... It is within ... and relates ... a mathematically incalculable, a Graphically indemonstrable ... Figure !
Syed Hasan Shahid Bukhari

I'm so sorry that you are missing the entire point of the talk. Ignorance and mis-information are our greatest enemy. As a species we need to concentrate on the real world and how that world affects the daily lives of everyone upon it. Fact based decisions need to be made, and as we, the uninformed, continue to elect politicians that prey upon the ignorance of the masses, our democracies are lost. Knowledge is power.

SB
Syed Hasan Shahid Bukhari
Posted 4 years ago
In reply to:
I'm so sorry that you are missing the entire point of the talk. Ignorance and mis-information are our greatest enemy. As a species we need to concentrate on the real world and how that world affects the daily lives of everyone upon it. Fact based decisions need to be made, and as we, the uninformed, continue to elect politicians that prey upon the ignorance of the masses, our democracies are lost. Knowledge is power.
Don Diehl

Don ... I did not miss the point ... I am talking of the larger picture ...

That to say the least, I believe, it's pathetic, to evaluate the "human" ... on the basis of numbers ... thus, treat, an individual ... as just another, number ...

Humans, can ... and should ... only be judged, by humans ... with Humanity ...

Because, an individual, is a Universe, unto himself ... all Humans share the same joys and griefs, as the other ... That an Human, is just not another 'figure' ... an Human is never, a number !

That it's essentially Megalomaniacal, to treat an individual, on a collective's basis ... that It's tyranny, to do so, within the Racial ...

That its a gross misunderstanding of Reality ... If, any individual's suffering ... affected, by an inhuman approach of one like-himself ... his or her equal ... because, the other, may suffer from a belief, that except his or her kind ... all the rest are expendable, numbers !

AA
anon anon
Posted 4 years ago
In reply to:
I'm so sorry that you are missing the entire point of the talk. Ignorance and mis-information are our greatest enemy. As a species we need to concentrate on the real world and how that world affects the daily lives of everyone upon it. Fact based decisions need to be made, and as we, the uninformed, continue to elect politicians that prey upon the ignorance of the masses, our democracies are lost. Knowledge is power.
Don Diehl

If we can encourage people and companies, school systems and teachers to know, teach and learn facts, then we can expect (and test and survey) political leaders about their fact-based knowledge.

I am tired of hearing about their political decisions and seeing inaction based on little fact. If they cannot make the grade coming into office and maintain an above average score on surveys about current facts, then they cannot possible lead or talk about the future.

There is a place for political persuasion and art (and in being persuaded by facts), only after demonstrating sufficient basic human knowledge about current facts.

Degrees from universities and law schools are no indicator of anything. We should not be sending the "best and brightest" to government because they knew how to get degrees, or raise large sums of money, have a family or career some admire, present limited talks about very narrowly focused sound-bite issues during an hour TV "debate."

SB
Syed Hasan Shahid Bukhari
Posted 4 years ago
In reply to:
If we can encourage people and companies, school systems and teachers to know, teach and learn facts, then we can expect (and test and survey) political leaders about their fact-based knowledge. I am tired of hearing about their political decisions and seeing inaction based on little fact. If they cannot make the grade coming into office and maintain an above average score on surveys about current facts, then they cannot possible lead or talk about the future. There is a place for political persuasion and art (and in being persuaded by facts), only after demonstrating sufficient basic human knowledge about current facts. Degrees from universities and law schools are no indicator of anything. We should not be sending the "best and brightest" to government because they knew how to get degrees, or raise large sums of money, have a family or career some admire, present limited talks about very narrowly focused sound-bite issues during an hour TV "debate."
anon anon

Don ...

What you say, is very agreeable ...

But, a simultaneous dealing, with disjointed "Facts" ... compounded by wrong "Basic Concepts" ... leads to a Confusion about the Place and Role of things in human affairs' larger Jigsaw, and makes a simple thing, look like a, grand Puzzle ...

Anyway, I agree with your general Idea of the purpose of Education ... 
since, Education, is not the mere teaching of a Curriculum, nor, a certain imparting of disciplines and manners, that might help one, earn a livelihood, in what's "Life, in your Real, world" ...

That Purpose of Education ... is much more than a livelihood that makes you a VIP at home ... or a social Democrat ... Because, the Ideal of Education, is the "Making of the "Perfect ... Individual" ... the Good, Human !

That your idea of the role of Grades in "real" life, and the means adopted, by smart ones, to secure 4.0 + GPAs ... is also agreeable ... 
But that's Micro stuff ... and we should not be distracted by commas, semicolons, and full stops ... when discussing the Macro Barriers, that hinder Learning ...

Lastly, Political decisions, or whats to happen in Future ... are not about education ... These are political slogans of Politicians, seeking Power ... to control the educated, Individuals !

Regards

MH
Marilyn Huff
Posted 4 years ago

The science of data collection and graphic analysis made easy by the Roslings. Just love facts presented so the vast majority can understand. 
So logical to get the bias out of presented data to understand all aspects of our world. 
This presentation was an eye opener and I feel less ignorant about the world- it put things in perspective- the best way to view anything. I'm feeling more optimistic for sure. 
Will follow the Roslings for more findings.

WJ
Walt Johnson
Posted 4 years ago

We so often encounter people's opinions that are not supported by information but rather by emotion and "propaganda". We often recognize that the opinion seems unlikely but too often we fail to ask them to support the opinion. These wrong ideas make it difficult to make good decisions when we allocate resources and when vote for on issues or candidates.

I wish the Rosling's very simple approach of teaching people to optimistic rather than pessimistic, would work. But even if he could influence a large group of Swedes, Americans, or chimps, replacing a negative bias with a positive bias would only help with some questions. And would be very wrong on many others. The only real solution would be to replace misinformation with factual information on a massive scale.

I hope he will take on that task!

MR
M-L Reifschneider
Posted 4 years ago

I thoroughly disagree with the Roslings' findings and conclusions. I.e. I have seen reputable facts showing that the "have's" are globally quickly overtaking the "have nots". This optimistic analysis of "fact" charts is also greatly to be admonished in that it leads the so-called West to underestimate their own failure to see how their nations are quickly being overcome by the increasing levels of economics, environmental concerns and knowledge vis a vis other "developing nations." Attitude also is a big factor in analyzing statistics as our superior attitude leads us to blindness of the real facts.

RP
Ramin Patil
Posted 4 years ago

There is a *huge* difference between being ignorant (not knowing something) and being mis-informed (holding onto something as fact that is actually not accurate or false). In the test data shown, the respondents don't have an option of "I don't know". They are forced to select an answer, even if they are not sure. Others, who may be mis-informed, may select a wrong answer, but are confident they are picking a correct answer. Hence, you cannot differentiate between those who are ignorant, versus mis-informed. I would argue that being mis-informed is much more dangerous than simply being ignorant. Being ignorant can be fixed by showing people facts and information. Mis-informed people often continue holding onto their incorrect beliefs even after knowing about the facts. See the current debates about the age of the earth, evolution, etc.

HC
Houston Callaway
Posted 4 years ago

I think you are putting too much emphasis on the negative connotations of ignorance. By definition, ignorance is simply lack of knowledge or information. Assuming the definition implies the knowledge and information that is lacking is correct, then mis-informed and ignorant are synonymous. Ignorance is simply not knowing what is actually true. The negative connotations are simply because the word is used as an insult instead of a simple description. I think what you are actually trying to say is "People who are ignorant and don't want to learn are the most dangerous." Being ignorant and accepting to new information is not only good -- it's great. That means that a) the person has accepted they might not know the answer and b) are willing to learn it.

Now, I'll take a slight tangent here because of the way you phrased the last bit about "Mis-informed people.... [to the end.]" Be very, very careful about falling into your own version of ignorance. One of my favorite quotes on this type of subject is from Men in Black -- and unlikely source, I'll admit. It reads: "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it. Fifteen hundred years ago everybody knew the Earth was the center of the universe. Five hundred years ago, everybody knew the Earth was flat, and fifteen minutes ago, you knew that humans were alone on this planet. Imagine what you'll know tomorrow." Now, the alien part has yet to be officially determined, but the quote still holds true. New facts every day tell us that what we used to know is no longer true. We -did- use to think the world was the center of the universe, and flat. Cigarettes used to be advertised as a health-aide by doctors. It's safe to -- instead of judge others for not accepting the "facts" that you subscribe to -- simply try to convince them that what you believe is the "most-probable." Because, quite frankly, we don't know nearly enough about -anything- to declare ourselves right.

JH
Janos Hefko
Posted 4 years ago

The wealth comparison is useless, because in '76 only reach people had plane tickets. Now they want us to believe that we are as rich as a person in '76 who had a plane ticket, because we have a plane ticket too? NO we would be as rich if we had something that only rich people have NOW. Like owning a Mercedes or BMW.

JG
Josvé Guevara
Posted 4 years ago

Plane tickets are more available because the consumer market has gotten bigger. A country richness is measured by purchasing power not by how many rich people they have.

MK
Malacka Kurtafarkú
Posted 4 years ago
In reply to:
Plane tickets are more available because the consumer market has gotten bigger. A country richness is measured by purchasing power not by how many rich people they have.
Josvé Guevara

yeah and my purchasing power is not the same as a guy's who could buy a ticket in '76. what Is the point of the comparison then exactly?

Vincent Lowe
Posted 4 years ago
In reply to:
The wealth comparison is useless, because in '76 only reach people had plane tickets. Now they want us to believe that we are as rich as a person in '76 who had a plane ticket, because we have a plane ticket too? NO we would be as rich if we had something that only rich people have NOW. Like owning a Mercedes or BMW.
Janos Hefko

The point isn't about plane tickets or purchasing power. The point is that we form opinions based on anecdotal evidence (thanks for demonstrating that), personal bias, our intuition and exaggerated analysis of threats, and outdated principles and data.

We are invited to inform ourselves with actual facts about the actual condition of the world today. I welcome the invitation myself.

By the way, I have a higher opinion of those who are wrong because they are simply misinformed than of those who reject information because it contradicts a fondly held and deeply entrenched world view.

---v

MK
Malacka Kurtafarkú
Posted 3 years ago
In reply to:
The point isn't about plane tickets or purchasing power. The point is that we form opinions based on anecdotal evidence (thanks for demonstrating that), personal bias, our intuition and exaggerated analysis of threats, and outdated principles and data. We are invited to inform ourselves with actual facts about the actual condition of the world today. I welcome the invitation myself. By the way, I have a higher opinion of those who are wrong because they are simply misinformed than of those who reject information because it contradicts a fondly held and deeply entrenched world view. ---v
Vincent Lowe

I truly don't understand your point. From where I stand we can buy tickets now, because they are so cheap and not because we are so much better off than in '76. And similarly, only the rich could buy tickets in '76, because it was so damn expensive, just as luxury cars now. Where is the anecdote? His BS conclusions from his statistics are anecdotes.

Vincent Lowe
Posted 3 years ago
In reply to:
I truly don't understand your point. From where I stand we can buy tickets now, because they are so cheap and not because we are so much better off than in '76. And similarly, only the rich could buy tickets in '76, because it was so damn expensive, just as luxury cars now. Where is the anecdote? His BS conclusions from his statistics are anecdotes.
Malacka Kurtafarkú

...you do understand my point. (part of it at least)

Both your points, and mine speak to the general rise for most of us upward in Maslow's hierarchy of needs. The principle is that many things which were once out of reach for most of us are now commoditized and we can take advantage of them. (such as air travel, personal transportation, access to the arts)

In general, this points to the premise that "things are getting better."

The remainder of my point was that some folks are entrenched in the point of view that things are terrible, and they cling to anecdotal evidence rather than make themselves willing to see something new. You can show them any amount of evidence that things are getting better and they will lash back in anger to vigorously contradict the observation.

I can support the premise (Things ARE indeed, getting better) both with empirical evidence and statistical evidence. Can't understand why that makes people so angry.

MK
Malacka Kurtafarkú
Posted 3 years ago
In reply to:
...you do understand my point. (part of it at least) Both your points, and mine speak to the general rise for most of us upward in Maslow's hierarchy of needs. The principle is that many things which were once out of reach for most of us are now commoditized and we can take advantage of them. (such as air travel, personal transportation, access to the arts) In general, this points to the premise that "things are getting better." The remainder of my point was that some folks are entrenched in the point of view that things are terrible, and they cling to anecdotal evidence rather than make themselves willing to see something new. You can show them any amount of evidence that things are getting better and they will lash back in anger to vigorously contradict the observation. I can support the premise (Things ARE indeed, getting better) both with empirical evidence and statistical evidence. Can't understand why that makes people so angry.
Vincent Lowe

Ok, we are angry, because lower middle class people can afford a plane ticket occasionally, that is just incredibly small advantage over the options of 1976, even if you weigh in all other benefits of our age, compared to what they could be with more fair distribution of wealth, like if private wealth would be capped and natural resources could not be owned. When you hoard and amass cats, beyond the amount you reasonably could have a meaningful relationship with, they call you crazy. When you do the same with wealth, no one bats an eyelid.

Vincent Lowe
Posted 3 years ago
In reply to:
Ok, we are angry, because lower middle class people can afford a plane ticket occasionally, that is just incredibly small advantage over the options of 1976, even if you weigh in all other benefits of our age, compared to what they could be with more fair distribution of wealth, like if private wealth would be capped and natural resources could not be owned. When you hoard and amass cats, beyond the amount you reasonably could have a meaningful relationship with, they call you crazy. When you do the same with wealth, no one bats an eyelid.
Malacka Kurtafarkú

...and that demonstrates the point of talk exactly. If we define "ignorance" as the simple, non-value related state of knowing or not knowing, we can begin to see that we sometimes synthesize what we know as a function of what we want to happen. We filter facts when they don't match our agenda, and we extrapolate what we know from the set of facts that we accept or seek out.

Their point is that we are fascinated by "what's wrong" and we elevate evidence of that to become so important that we can make bad decisions.

The invitation is to take a balanced view of "what's so in the world" by seeking out real facts, and not throwing out the ones that don't match our pre-determined agenda.

JH
Janos Hefko
Posted 3 years ago
In reply to:
...and that demonstrates the point of talk exactly. If we define "ignorance" as the simple, non-value related state of knowing or not knowing, we can begin to see that we sometimes synthesize what we know as a function of what we want to happen. We filter facts when they don't match our agenda, and we extrapolate what we know from the set of facts that we accept or seek out. Their point is that we are fascinated by "what's wrong" and we elevate evidence of that to become so important that we can make bad decisions. The invitation is to take a balanced view of "what's so in the world" by seeking out real facts, and not throwing out the ones that don't match our pre-determined agenda.
Vincent Lowe

That might be true if you simply look at the numbers, but look at what that data in either case amounts to. It may be that only 10 children burn to death horribly in car accidents in a year, instead of an example of falsely assumed 100, but it doesn't matter, as 10 such deaths amount to as if it was 1 million, because even 1 is absolutely unacceptable. Just for the purpose of being a smartypants correcting the number of deaths or poverty seems like a sickeningly obscene play with words by the worst imaginable cynics. I understand my approach is a slippery slope, as it could lead to placing the blame on things which are not necessary the main culprits, in the forms of witch hunts, (like "even 1 rape is too much, so advertise to all men to not rape!") but especially for this reason bringing such EXAGGERATED IMPORTANCE and SHOWMAN STYLE attention to mistakes made in estimating the likes of the exact number of deaths and misery and so on just seems like yet another HUGE distraction from the more important job of finding the things truly responsible and solution to those problems. (Maybe teaching men how to successfully court, or recognizing the need for sex in men the same noble thing as the need for motherhood is there in women, so then men would become more gracious and that could change the whole culture.) I'm just brainstorming here to show that instead of popularizing the DIRE NEED for looking for alternate venues and solutions, their show is just another huge hog in the information overload we need to face every day. Because saying "oh it's not 100 women raped, just 1 is raped" is the same type of approach, like "even 1 rape is too much, so advertise to all men to not rape!" both of them are not going to make ANYTHING better, they will exactly make the problem worse, because they try to decrease actual discussion, one by false assumptions and exaggerated numbers, the other by making the unacceptable look like as it was something that could be expressed in numbers.

RM
Robert McCulley
Posted 4 years ago

I am concerned that this presentation, as good as it was, furthers the intuition that we can continue to develop on the current economical scale. As it is true that the humps are one hump, it is true that there is a gap. The idea of being able to fly on vacation is because of cheaper technologies and not a matter of disposable income. The rich now own their own aircraft. Do we continue to exploit until we all own aircraft?

Consider that the scale does not move from the 1975 income; as well as, the amount earned is not accurately indicated in their graphs. Yes we are making progress in terms of violence, poverty, and social equality. Yes the media has to big of an influence on our perceptions. But there is a gap and new standards continue to increase greed. Surely we are not here for, and the best thing we can do is have, a system that gives so much to so few. Sensationalism of the media, the dream of riches, is promoted at the end of their talk. Social development needs to be first. Not with just the rich and poor or educated and uneducated, but economic development and the environment as well.

Social is the interactions of organisms with other organisms whether they are aware of it or not, are voluntary or not. I find it perplexing that they discuss inaccurate perceptions and end in promoting one.

DL
Debbie Longley
Posted 4 years ago

The assumption is made that everything is getting better denies what almost all scientists agree on, that we are in big trouble if we don't change our carbon output. We can't just keep consuming more and more and assume that everything is getting better. The fact that more people are flying is another problem in terms of planetary health. Yes, some things have improved, but our problems need to be addressed, and they are big.

TA
Thomas Aiello
Posted 4 years ago

Maybe ignorance is a good thing. If people knew things were getting better they would stop helping and just pat themselves on the back.

P
Peter M
Posted 4 years ago

So people should believe things that they feel rather than what they should measure? So we should ignore science because the fantasy feels better and gives us purpose? So we should stop being critical and observing nuance and act in the world based on assumption rather than facts? See anything wrong with your assertion? Since when does nihilism motivate people to make the world better?

EN
Elana Nadel
Posted 4 years ago

The easiest thing is to blame the media and the schools. I don't know much about schools today except that one has to actively learn there and read a lot beside the dictate of curriculum. 
I know more about media: their job is to give the most interesting/important/scandalous news of the day and not to sum up or update our general knowledge. These have to be learned by reading, reading, reading. 
We ourselves - and that includes every single one of us - are responsible for what we know or don't know. 
The blame is on us! But that is a good thing because we can change it at our will.

NL
Norm De Lue
Posted 4 years ago

Since the title was "How Not to be Ignorant" and a tutorial was presented on how to beat the chimps it would have been nice to ask the audience three more questions to see if the lessons were absorbed.

Piotr Misiuna
Posted 4 years ago

Same questions, over and over again, same answers. That's why I do not follow TED any longer. Hans is someone who is trying to bring attention to the issue, not to focus it on himself but he was turned into a celebrity anyway.

The answer to the question could be... to bring discussion down, hide it, act on intuition, we need no consciousness... than we can finally be more ignorant.

BTW from anthropological perspective it is worth to take a closer look on relation between chimps and baboons, not human.

MD
Michael D. Dwyer, Ph.D.
Posted 4 years ago

Mr. Patel has brought up the essential point--the basis of Mr. Rosling's dissembling is his inappropriate and non discriminating usage of the phrases " being ignorant" and " being misinformed." I can only hope that our replies to his specious pronouncements can be fixed by informing him of the facts.

TN
tony newbill
Posted 4 years ago

There is so much being talked about thats blowing right by the majority of people working in their 40 hour work cycles and not hearing anything but what they want to get for their efforts . 
There is a difference in societies that are sustainable in the world if you look at the fertility charts , it clearly shows that developed nations are sustainable in population growth , so the policy of developing the undeveloped nations so they can evolve with wisdom and understand the concept of the finite element of their lives means there are limits to their lives I bet they will self regulate too .

http://www.cnn.com/2012/04/08/opinion/gilding-earth-limits/index.html

http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/7-billion

http://www.nbcnews.com/id/44990504/ns/us_news-life/t/seven-big-problems-billion-people/

PEOPLE UNDERSTAND WHATS GOING ON , http://www.waronhumans.com/

JP
Justo Perez
Posted 6 months ago

Very interesting but for me it yielded the obvious. However, if the data could also reflect how much of each country's population are within the poor end, middle, and wealthy end, it would yield a substantive perspective as to the demographics root cause, e.g. economics vs. political structure.

KK
Kirit Koladiya
Posted 6 months ago

How do you decide which home to visit for photo. 
I can see you only choose poor families in India. 
It is sad and disappointing that you people only see India's poor. 
Disappointing.

Marcos Gogolin
Posted 3 years ago

I found the presentation very sensational, hard to believe that the man-made problems have not grown... and wonder if the presenter would find a different set of statistics-to-prove-his-point for a less known problem, under the ocean -- http://www.ted.com/talks/brian_skerry_reveals_ocean_s_glory_and_horror?language=en#t-192703 
Maybe the world has turned on its head for so long -- that nowadays even the pope is more in touch with reality ... https://www.facebook.com/DavidSuzuki/posts/10153418060283874

JM
Jolie Mcmillian
Posted 2 years ago

You are confusing work that still needs to be done, with facts.That is the whole point. They are not saying that all is hunky dory with the world. They are stating that the facts, the data, the truth, supports progress (which given advances, I am not sure how anyone could find that so shocking). Time travel back and see how lovely things would have been. We have never been more connected( CNN blasting negative 24/7, telling you all that is wrong with world, internet doing the same thing). So yes, it makes sense that we have never been more ignorant or suffered so much from bias. Special interests groups would like to retain that no doubt.

RY
Ryan Yeong
Posted 4 years ago

Being informed is always important.

A smart person coming from a first world country can quickly go downhill. This is due to the fact that when one (growing up) has had a good life and seen the best things in their environment, they quickly form an opinion on others and the rest of the world.

This leads to them not needing to improve because they think they know they're the best not knowing it's the system that has made it possible for them.

Slowly, others will catch up and they (first world people) will be left behind (or maybe others have already been in front of them for a while and first world people are still living in their own deluded perfect world).

Always keep you're cup half empty so you will always improve. A full cup can never be filled with more water as it will only overflow.

ST
Stocktrade th
Posted 4 years ago

Hans Rosling's presentation is very informative for me.

JA
Jan Angevine
Posted 4 years ago

Which part?

CS
Christoph Stanek
Posted 4 years ago
In reply to:
Which part?
Jan Angevine

Well, what about the declining starvation deaths? What about the increasing schooling for women? What about the declining number of people living beneath the magical line of 1$ per day? But, of course, it would also be interesting why the WB has increased the line of poverty from 1$ per day to 2$ per day. Also it is interesting why lesser people starve, although some people claim that the problems with food are increasing. And maybe that is what this presentation is all about. And that is interesting.

JG
Juan Garay
Posted 4 years ago

Smart and catchy, but This analysis does not look at relative poverty and the real question of inequity : unfair inequalities. extreme -WB defined- poverty or people flying in planes for holidays( connected , though, to intergenerational inequity by carbon footprint) are only one side of the picture or curve ( which by the way is nor as simolistic as shown) and equity is about the relation of the differences. Coming soon.

SN
Sky Nite
Posted 4 years ago

What if when asked a problem, instead of simply choosing an unsure answer based on intuition, we answered "I don't know" or "I recognize that I'm unsure", and look up the answer on the internet? The trends this talk illuminate are very interesting, but I think their approach of trying to correct via other generalizations is limited at best. To truly end ignorance, we need to be able to recognize when we DON'T know something, and be knowledgable about how to find the answer, rather than going with a guess and saying it is right.

That being said, an entertaining talk, and I'm glad people are thinking about the problem in creative terms.

JB
Joan Bresling
Posted 4 years ago

If the issue was small, limited questions then sure! But it isn't.

You can agree having a relatively correct idea about the trend in large topics you can't properly research is positive?

I think it's fair to correct something general with a general answer. The simplified question is "Is the world, in relation to poverty, trending in a positive or negative direction, over the last 100 years?"

Far too many say it's negative or neutral, when it plainly isn't.

At some point in life you have to or might want to have an idea about something - without having time or opportunity to research it. Wouldn't you rather have a relatively accurate "guess" than a completely incorrect one?

JL
Jie Lu
Posted 4 years ago

Very funny talk and inspiring as they consider ignorance as a focus. But then I ponder that even this Ted Talk is making its own ignorance. Hans and Ola used such a way to convince people that they are ignored about so many facts. The point of the project is to help people get the right views of the world without human biases, misleadings by media those sort of things. But even such numbers do not necessarily capture the full dimension of the problem, because they are highly uncertain.

I also believe that the data in the talk is based on the percentage such as the one about Natural Disaster. The world population is increasing so even though Natural Disasters happen with a same time pattern, it seems Natural Disasters kill less. I don't believe that when people think the world has more people being killed by Natural Disasters is a presentation of ignorance. It presents a view of worry and sense of crisis by the single individuals.

This is the diversity of thoughts, diversity creates prosperity and innovative ideas. Different people have different attitude towards a thing, or a fact. Even if people know most of the world is improving in the Standard of living, assuming that all the people are behaving rationally, they appear to act in a "random walk", like the market will do in most of the time: the past gives no better indication than a coin flip of the future direction of the price of a stock. As the Talk goes to the last part when Ola forecasted the GDP per capita in the next decade. This might be helpful but it is not very convincible.

What I want to ask is how do you define Ignorance? 
Still, great and inspiring talk! Love the way of presentation.

AK
Arvind Kumar
Posted 4 years ago

Very nice talk as always. Such data is really very important in almost every possible way.

But then after the data Ola seems to fall in the trap of the fractions and percentages. For instance, yes the fraction of people able to afford international flight will increase in the 'rest of the world' but then the population there is also increasing. If we look at the distribution it seems that almost 70% people in the EU+USA can afford international flying but the rest of the world this fraction is still tiny. Not to forget the skew of the distribution.

My point is that when dealing with large numbers it is not sufficient to know the percentages, you need to worry about the actual numbers. For instance, if there is a problem with only 1% people in India and China, this is a small problem in terms of fractions but in terms of absolute number than number is way too big.

Still, great work by the gapminder foundation.

CJ
Cheenu Jey
Posted 4 years ago

Agree entirely. Using absolute and relative values in absence of one another leads to "lies, damned lies and statistics". The resulting problem is even more emphasised when dealing with extreme (large and small) values.

EK
eiji kushibiki
Posted 4 years ago

The presentation reminds me of "The Rational Optimist" by Matt Ridley. "The world is getting better and you need to recognize it by facts" is what I learned from it.

MY
Mark Young
Posted 4 years ago

The Rosling’s Intuitive Statistical Good News People Centric Approach: 
From the Ted Talk I gather that

One, Most things human are improving. Two, We are equalizing into a normalised one hump camel, (a statisticians dream). Three, Knowledgeable society is now preceding both its wealth and its resource acquisition. And Four Sharks kill few.

But what about an intuitively non-people centric approach:

Four, Sharks kill few because there are now so few sharks. Three, We Humans are getting very good at sharing information amongst each other on how to best ‘take’ from the world. Two, Our one Hump Humanity is blandly grouping together a globalized sameness through a massive eco-diversity die off. And One, Humanities self improvement experiment appears to be in equilibrium with a Fading World

Slapping each other on the back and congratulating ourselves on how safe we’ve become from sharks, how full our stomachs are, how caring we’ve become and how an enlighten society we are- seems a small consolation when your city is Pompeii and the ash that has been fertilizing your fields is from Vesuvius.

To enlighten ourselves beyond our ignorance of our relatively minor human scale matters and yet ignore the magnitude scale increase in Globalization consequence and urgency- such as Ozone Depletion, Water Table Depletions and Contaminations, Mass Extinction, Desertification, Global warming, Ocean Acidification and the yet unknown... well such minor enlightens as ‘how many Girls are attending School’- well when this is not distinctly contrasted with these other greater challenges, or these higher scale issues are only offered using some vague throw away acknowledgement of non-improving problems, well then these ‘Feel Good Statistics’ begin to reek of “Feel Good Spin”. This puts me in mind of what beautiful sunsets there were after the Mount Vesuvius Eruption.

Offered, an additional simple catch phrase on the nature of intuition and ignorance: ‘Scale Matters’.

LT
Laura Turner
Posted 4 years ago

It's hard to discuss all the problems of the world in a 20 minute presentation.

MY
Mark Young
Posted 4 years ago
In reply to:
It's hard to discuss all the problems of the world in a 20 minute presentation.
Laura Turner

I’ve heard it said that ‘it takes at least 40 minutes to learn anything new’; otherwise it’s just resorting of old hash that we let ourselves be surprised by. If this is true then you’re right, 20 minutes doesn’t cut it. So then what did we watch? A post rings twice? 
The Rosling’s are cloaked in integrity. They bring a Good News Message that a CNN sound clip would trounce on. This is because, contrary to the Rosling’s intent of inspiring greater philanthropic behaviour using their brand of positive feedback, this Good News Message subtly justifies ‘greed is good’, or more specifically ‘business as usual’. This Justification happens because the Rosling’s style of conversation leaves issues unsaid or marginalises massive problems. As Economic Social Statisticians they have made ‘externality’- Global Warming, Ocean Acidification and etc.. These are massively increasing problems that do not fit the Good News Model and should have been given an exceptional showing. But then again that might have tainted their attempt to feed the Good News Model into our intuition.

LT
Laura Turner
Posted 4 years ago
In reply to:
I’ve heard it said that ‘it takes at least 40 minutes to learn anything new’; otherwise it’s just resorting of old hash that we let ourselves be surprised by. If this is true then you’re right, 20 minutes doesn’t cut it. So then what did we watch? A post rings twice? The Rosling’s are cloaked in integrity. They bring a Good News Message that a CNN sound clip would trounce on. This is because, contrary to the Rosling’s intent of inspiring greater philanthropic behaviour using their brand of positive feedback, this Good News Message subtly justifies ‘greed is good’, or more specifically ‘business as usual’. This Justification happens because the Rosling’s style of conversation leaves issues unsaid or marginalises massive problems. As Economic Social Statisticians they have made ‘externality’- Global Warming, Ocean Acidification and etc.. These are massively increasing problems that do not fit the Good News Model and should have been given an exceptional showing. But then again that might have tainted their attempt to feed the Good News Model into our intuition.
Mark Young

Even if everything you say is correct, it does not preclude the possibility that the Roslings conclusion is correct...that things are getting better. Perhaps in spite of all those bad things you brought up, things are getting better. Perhaps because of some of those things, things are improving. Perhaps greed is good to a certain point. What if the feeling that charitable efforts are paying off, increases rather than decreases from this information. No one can say for sure the effect it will have. If nothing else, it's good to examine another point of view. Perhaps you should watch the TED on being wrong. Sometimes you think one things going to happen, but then...something else happens.

MY
Mark Young
Posted 4 years ago
In reply to:
Even if everything you say is correct, it does not preclude the possibility that the Roslings conclusion is correct...that things are getting better. Perhaps in spite of all those bad things you brought up, things are getting better. Perhaps because of some of those things, things are improving. Perhaps greed is good to a certain point. What if the feeling that charitable efforts are paying off, increases rather than decreases from this information. No one can say for sure the effect it will have. If nothing else, it's good to examine another point of view. Perhaps you should watch the TED on being wrong. Sometimes you think one things going to happen, but then...something else happens.
Laura Turner

I took your suggestion and watched TED: Kathryn Schulz’s “On being wrong”. I don’t have a crystal ball as yet, but I am working on it; so as to the right of now- yes the future is Terra Incognita. So, could I be wrong? 
If I’m wrong but don’t know it, then I must feel that I am right, (care of Kathryn Schulz). But what is it that I feel I’m right about? Ok, begin with this flow of connections, it’s a little difficult but... humor me. 
I feel right that I was wrong to feel right about feeling wrong about feeling right about the certainty of the coming traumatic Disaster of Global Warming, (yes the sequence does work), ...as it was just possible that the Global Warming Denier element with their 50% scientific support, (that suddenly became less than 2&half%), were right when they were saying that Global Warming was not only ‘not that bad’ but that it was a also a ‘Giant Hoax’. I feel distinctly right about feeling right about the wrongness of this when I realise the terrible waste of opportunity that we lost in these past two decades when bamboozled by contrived and frivolous argument. 
I have proved to myself beyond a shadow of a doubt that I am highly susceptible to ‘situational blindness’ and therefore can guess that I’m susceptible to a range of blindness’s that I don’t even know exist because I’m, you guessed it, blind to them. But what have I been blind to? 
I have read Bjorn Lomborg’s “Sceptical Environmentalist” which is very Rosling like; I’ve taken Biology and have some grounding in ecology, I have vacillated on the Global Warming Question for years. I Drive a car. I’m Canadian, which makes me a national of a Pusher Country pumping its black poppy ooze for our Combustion Engine Fix.

MY
Mark Young
Posted 4 years ago
In reply to:
I took your suggestion and watched TED: Kathryn Schulz’s “On being wrong”. I don’t have a crystal ball as yet, but I am working on it; so as to the right of now- yes the future is Terra Incognita. So, could I be wrong? If I’m wrong but don’t know it, then I must feel that I am right, (care of Kathryn Schulz). But what is it that I feel I’m right about? Ok, begin with this flow of connections, it’s a little difficult but... humor me. I feel right that I was wrong to feel right about feeling wrong about feeling right about the certainty of the coming traumatic Disaster of Global Warming, (yes the sequence does work), ...as it was just possible that the Global Warming Denier element with their 50% scientific support, (that suddenly became less than 2&half%), were right when they were saying that Global Warming was not only ‘not that bad’ but that it was a also a ‘Giant Hoax’. I feel distinctly right about feeling right about the wrongness of this when I realise the terrible waste of opportunity that we lost in these past two decades when bamboozled by contrived and frivolous argument. I have proved to myself beyond a shadow of a doubt that I am highly susceptible to ‘situational blindness’ and therefore can guess that I’m susceptible to a range of blindness’s that I don’t even know exist because I’m, you guessed it, blind to them. But what have I been blind to? I have read Bjorn Lomborg’s “Sceptical Environmentalist” which is very Rosling like; I’ve taken Biology and have some grounding in ecology, I have vacillated on the Global Warming Question for years. I Drive a car. I’m Canadian, which makes me a national of a Pusher Country pumping its black poppy ooze for our Combustion Engine Fix.
Mark Young

Last Year I had a shock, a shock that pulled all the pieces together and this shock came from a very strange source, Shark boy & Dumb Cow. Rob Stewart, (shark boy), made a documentary “Revolution”, it starts with a digression on the loss of more than 50% of the shark population, a fish specioid that has been around for a billion years, humanity’s clocking 300 thousand. In his world-wind-talk-circuit- he is in Hong Kong confronted by ‘dumb cow’ who asks, “Why should we care about the sharks when most of the fish are going to disappear in 50 years anyway”? Enter Ocean Acidification and the Chain of being. 
It’s not just OA, though a 60 million year increase in the soda pop levels of 2/3’s of the planet surface does constitute a challenge beyond the standard Darwinian coping strategies. No it’s not just OA, the biosphere is a system, most systems work generally fine if you break or weaken one or two elements; However when a system is attacked strongly by multiple parameters, breakdowns must occur. A global wide biosphere breakdown is not something we want to endure, no matter what its nature. 
On a personal level, at the moment I’m pretending that I am right about a pet project, it has profound consequences, which pretty much means that everyone else is at some level wrong. The odds of this being correct are 'lottery like' at best, and yet here I hang my hat on less than a wing and a prayer. Being so profoundly aware of my whole future past & present life destined to a probable tragic and traumatic wrongness... it is possible that I might compensate by taking some degree of ‘comforting certainty’ in something of the world that I can hold to my bosom. That the comforting certainty just happens to include the extinction of all I love and care about, including Humanity; well, at least it’s something I can count on. 
At the risk of being a pontifont- 
Stop Building Combustion Engines, because scale matters.

MY
Mark Young
Posted 4 years ago
In reply to:
Last Year I had a shock, a shock that pulled all the pieces together and this shock came from a very strange source, Shark boy & Dumb Cow. Rob Stewart, (shark boy), made a documentary “Revolution”, it starts with a digression on the loss of more than 50% of the shark population, a fish specioid that has been around for a billion years, humanity’s clocking 300 thousand. In his world-wind-talk-circuit- he is in Hong Kong confronted by ‘dumb cow’ who asks, “Why should we care about the sharks when most of the fish are going to disappear in 50 years anyway”? Enter Ocean Acidification and the Chain of being. It’s not just OA, though a 60 million year increase in the soda pop levels of 2/3’s of the planet surface does constitute a challenge beyond the standard Darwinian coping strategies. No it’s not just OA, the biosphere is a system, most systems work generally fine if you break or weaken one or two elements; However when a system is attacked strongly by multiple parameters, breakdowns must occur. A global wide biosphere breakdown is not something we want to endure, no matter what its nature. On a personal level, at the moment I’m pretending that I am right about a pet project, it has profound consequences, which pretty much means that everyone else is at some level wrong. The odds of this being correct are 'lottery like' at best, and yet here I hang my hat on less than a wing and a prayer. Being so profoundly aware of my whole future past & present life destined to a probable tragic and traumatic wrongness... it is possible that I might compensate by taking some degree of ‘comforting certainty’ in something of the world that I can hold to my bosom. That the comforting certainty just happens to include the extinction of all I love and care about, including Humanity; well, at least it’s something I can count on. At the risk of being a pontifont- Stop Building Combustion Engines, because scale matters.
Mark Young

My error, 
Sharks around for 100 Million Years, 
not the Billion

CJ
Cheenu Jey
Posted 4 years ago
In reply to:
Even if everything you say is correct, it does not preclude the possibility that the Roslings conclusion is correct...that things are getting better. Perhaps in spite of all those bad things you brought up, things are getting better. Perhaps because of some of those things, things are improving. Perhaps greed is good to a certain point. What if the feeling that charitable efforts are paying off, increases rather than decreases from this information. No one can say for sure the effect it will have. If nothing else, it's good to examine another point of view. Perhaps you should watch the TED on being wrong. Sometimes you think one things going to happen, but then...something else happens.
Laura Turner

Disagree. @Laura Turner

"Wanting more" is not necessarily bad (and this isn't even a 'grey' zone, but more like a 'grey' line). For example, a question I asked myself when at uni: "is wanting more knowledge, greed"?

Both answer are "yes" and 'greed is bad', for a simple reason. "Greed", in itself, is an extreme. All extremes are dangerous. And as the case of Einstein's reference to 'stupidity', unlike 'intelligence', 'greed' also knows no limits.

One other question about "greed". If I want more money, because I am greedy, I pickpocket you to steal your money. I am not just serving my own greed and my own good?

However, "greed" in this world, seems to be OK if big organisations use their "power" to put pressure on those who have less power, just as long as "it is within the law", but more specifically, "the law" that each party can uphold in a court. This is (the complete misinterpretation) of the "survival of the fittest", whereby the "fittest" is considered the most powerful. (Ref: it was only in Darwin's 3rd edition of Origin.., that he mentions 'survival of the fittest', taking this line of argument from a social scientist, Herbert Spencer who distorted Darwin's words. Until then the "fittest" meant the "most adaptable"). It is from these notions that "greed is good" have emanated, overlooking 50,000 years worth of collaborative evolution of human societies, and to the quasi-equivalence notion of "greediest = fittest".

As explained by Mark, the notion of "externality" is a beautiful 'blank check' for any behaviour that causes detriment to one or more other(s), simply because the 'actor' is maximising their own goal, which is profit (read "greed"). These 'actors' are not required to evaluate their 'detriment' to others because according to the theorists, they are not "good" evaluating this.

On this video, I think Rosling (& Rosling) (on purpose?) show themselves exactly how the trap of ignorance based on "lies, damned lies and statistics" occurs.

Confusing.

CJ
Cheenu Jey
Posted 4 years ago
In reply to:
Even if everything you say is correct, it does not preclude the possibility that the Roslings conclusion is correct...that things are getting better. Perhaps in spite of all those bad things you brought up, things are getting better. Perhaps because of some of those things, things are improving. Perhaps greed is good to a certain point. What if the feeling that charitable efforts are paying off, increases rather than decreases from this information. No one can say for sure the effect it will have. If nothing else, it's good to examine another point of view. Perhaps you should watch the TED on being wrong. Sometimes you think one things going to happen, but then...something else happens.
Laura Turner

Rosling uses World Bank figures on the "poverty" topic of how things are getting better.

As per a previous post above, here is what the WB thinks themselves (their re-adjusted figures) about "poverty" improvements, which are a tad milder than what Rosling seems to picture. (Notably, that 33% of the world population today live on LESS than 2 USD per day): 
1. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DEC/Resources/DevelopingworldispoorerQJE.pdf

2. http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/poverty/overview

MY
Mark Young
Posted 2 years ago
In reply to:
Even if everything you say is correct, it does not preclude the possibility that the Roslings conclusion is correct...that things are getting better. Perhaps in spite of all those bad things you brought up, things are getting better. Perhaps because of some of those things, things are improving. Perhaps greed is good to a certain point. What if the feeling that charitable efforts are paying off, increases rather than decreases from this information. No one can say for sure the effect it will have. If nothing else, it's good to examine another point of view. Perhaps you should watch the TED on being wrong. Sometimes you think one things going to happen, but then...something else happens.
Laura Turner

Laura, it would appear that I’ve acquired a more optimistic outlook for what is to come. Paradoxically Trumps Presidency made poignant to me a hope that exists for all of us- simply… I realised that Trump is Irrelevant in a history that is sweeping across this world with a power that will move continents. 
I see the 2045 AI singularity event as an imposing threat that for us, that for all of us to survive will require the best that we can be, with solutions to the whole Global Warming/OA thing being an automatic consequence, (not to say severe damage won't be done along the way). 
This leads to the inclusive expressive meaning in the words ‘Our, We and US’ for humanity and for life, (artificial and otherwise), living and will come to live on this planet. 
It is through our own example of benevolence and altruism that we will send selfish messages of benevolence and altruism, that we may engender in our machine AI children those same traits toward us and toward other life when and while our infant Machine AI’s become to be. And so… 
The Golden Inclusion 
“Do unto ourselves as we would have others do unto us.”

CJ
Cheenu Jey
Posted 4 years ago
In reply to:
I’ve heard it said that ‘it takes at least 40 minutes to learn anything new’; otherwise it’s just resorting of old hash that we let ourselves be surprised by. If this is true then you’re right, 20 minutes doesn’t cut it. So then what did we watch? A post rings twice? The Rosling’s are cloaked in integrity. They bring a Good News Message that a CNN sound clip would trounce on. This is because, contrary to the Rosling’s intent of inspiring greater philanthropic behaviour using their brand of positive feedback, this Good News Message subtly justifies ‘greed is good’, or more specifically ‘business as usual’. This Justification happens because the Rosling’s style of conversation leaves issues unsaid or marginalises massive problems. As Economic Social Statisticians they have made ‘externality’- Global Warming, Ocean Acidification and etc.. These are massively increasing problems that do not fit the Good News Model and should have been given an exceptional showing. But then again that might have tainted their attempt to feed the Good News Model into our intuition.
Mark Young

I agree with you 100%, Mark Young. Thank you for having worded my "stomach's uneasiness" when watching this video. I couldn't put my finger on it. It is a little alarming that the Roslings' integrity and analysis seems to offer "evidence"that "all is for the best, in the best of all worlds" and therefore that any alarm is merely "psychological", like shark attacks. An overwhelming amount of evidence, including what you mention as "externalities" (economic, social or ecological) show systematically that these are neither "figments of imagination" and "half the glass is empty" interpretations.

It is even more stunning that this interpretation is coming from a Swede, who also has gained political clout. Sweden's relative "happiness" was built upon decades of equal income distribution, equal rights, equal opportunity and equality of outcome.

It seems Friedmanian "voodoo" economics doctrine is still alive and kicking, even though 3-4 decades of World Bank structural adjustment programs shows how dangerous Friedman economics is to "the many", especially the poorest and leaves the environment in shambles.

AS
Allan Stokes
Posted 4 years ago

Ola's portion of this talk instantly put me in mind of Daniel Dennett's book Intuition Pumps and Other Tools for Thinking. I haven't read this book yet, but I did watch a long video on YouTube of Dennett presenting this book as part of the series Talks at Google.

Recently I watched the video War Made Easy (narrated by Sean Penn) which is so understated in the analysis it presents that it constantly left me howling (in fairness, perhaps it adopted this stance on budgetary advice from legal). In this edifice of montage there's a sequence of clips covering many different American presidential regimes and many different American news reporting networks in which a photogenic newsreader attributes a nugget of political spin disguised as information with the phrase "according to government officials". "OMG!" I raged to myself, "that's even worse than Wikipedia." On Wikipedia, this kind of vague attribution would receive the red template treatment within minutes or hours.

Either our major news networks need to be better than Wikipedia, or content from these media outlets needs to cease being part of an educated diet. The best possible outcome of Ola's work to bring these simple intuition pumps into the world spotlight is that a factually forearmed world citizenry begins to demand the more of same from the evening news.

Dries Ketels
Posted 4 years ago

(Test) question: 
Did this talk scored better than the average chimp?

(certainly not better than the average Hans Rosling)

Dazy Santana
Posted 4 years ago

I'm agree with the ideas or shorcuts of the author. In fact I think that those rules if we apply ourselves in our lifes we could succeed.

KH
Ken Hunter
Posted 4 years ago

What did you do, hire the optimists club? DO i SENSE BIASED DATA HERE IN PLAY? With 30 REAL global disaster 'tipping points' now past us, of which 3 may be retrievable. 
The biggest ones looming in the immediate future 
1. Melted Methane Clathrates (permafrost) 
2. Exponential population growth that is nearing it's limits of both food and water; 
3. Endemic Radiation has already poisoned large parts of the pacific and most of the sailors of the Ronnie Raygun carrier task group, sent way too close to harm's way 
The Pacific has (by my calculation) 2.56E13 radioactive 'things' in each and every liter...and it's spreading. The glaciers that water and feed 3 billion people or more about to run dry...then they die... 
What are you so damned impressed by? The latest consumer zip-i-ditty-doo-da? BFD. With human extinction now quite possible within mere decades, just WHAT has gotten better by so much that it overwhelms something as AWESOME as the DEATH of LIFE?? Please, do tell.

MM
mario robert mariano
Posted 4 years ago

The scale used to show income distribution is utterly misleading. The head of the camel should at least be ten times farther from the hump. There should be more talk on how everyone can chip in, regardless of background and upbringing, to bring in the humongous income disparity.

SD
Shaun Daley
Posted 4 years ago

The graph uses a log scale - so long as you notice that it isn't misleading at all as an approximation for the vast majority of humanity.

Super-rich people are beyond any sample.

IA
Isabel Anguiano
Posted 4 years ago

I think this could change the mind of the people about the world, but I'm not sure is for the better. If we generally think that everything will be better by magic there will be no action.

Also, "lets make a test that will make everyone believes the same" and make it obligatory. Now to be able to work for any company your small backgrounds ideas do not count.

AS
Amos Schrum
Posted 4 years ago

Well yeah lets make it mandatory that everyone knows something about the things he is talking about. "small background ideas" on the other hand can differ although everyone is talking about the same stuff, e.g. some may think the best response to ignorance is to improve the schools, while others may think that tackling the news is the way to go.

DK
Danbi Kim
Posted 4 years ago
In reply to:
I think this could change the mind of the people about the world, but I'm not sure is for the better. If we generally think that everything will be better by magic there will be no action. Also, "lets make a test that will make everyone believes the same" and make it obligatory. Now to be able to work for any company your small backgrounds ideas do not count.
Isabel Anguiano

I disagree partly with your idea. Yea, it might work like that. But look at this way. Those who might think 'world is getting worse anyway, so what's good if I do something for the world?' can change their stance. The world is not automatically getting better of course (e.g. the natural disaster), it's getting better because of the people who care and try to make it better. In that sense, it really inspired me because I found the reason to do something good.

SP
Sergiusz Patela
Posted 4 years ago

So according to the statistics (> 3 min.) both World Wars were nothing special, just average. And on the subject of poverty, we have to agree, that no one is really poor -- at least no one worth speaking of. And on the other subjects,... Achoo! Achoo! Achoo! sorry, I am allergic to bullshit.

AS
Amos Schrum
Posted 4 years ago
In reply to:
So according to the statistics (> 3 min.) both World Wars were nothing special, just average. And on the subject of poverty, we have to agree, that no one is really poor -- at least no one worth speaking of. And on the other subjects,... Achoo! Achoo! Achoo! sorry, I am allergic to bullshit.
Sergiusz Patela

the question actually was if the number of people killed by natural disasters halved and you count the deaths caused by war, which are two entirely diffrent things. The reason why he even mentioned the two world wars is that during this time there were no major improvments in disaster protection. And he never said that nobody ist poor, he simply said that the percentage of people that actually are poor decreased. This can still mean that the absolute number of humans below the poverty line grew.

JM
John Mckay
Posted 4 years ago
In reply to:
the question actually was if the number of people killed by natural disasters halved and you count the deaths caused by war, which are two entirely diffrent things. The reason why he even mentioned the two world wars is that during this time there were no major improvments in disaster protection. And he never said that nobody ist poor, he simply said that the percentage of people that actually are poor decreased. This can still mean that the absolute number of humans below the poverty line grew.
Amos Schrum

I think he's speaking about life-threatening poverty. We have many poor, of course, but the absolute circumstances of those folks has improved, for the most part. Of course, there is great population growth in areas that have the worst poverty, which makes progress more difficult. But, in percentage terms, fewer people die of starvation than did 20 years ago. Not saying I can vouch for his statistics, but I think the message is correct, that things are improving rather than getting worse.

FB
Frank Barry
Posted 4 years ago

Respectfully beg to differ --

Hans said, "We still have almost a billion"...

[My response] That is 15% of the people in the world living Today in Extreme poverty — not having enough food for the day. 
=== 
[I've edited Ola's remarks] Ola, remarking --- So how do we solve such problems?

Practical tricks with these four rules of thumb; This is how you can generalize. 
1. Everything's worse. 
--- Everything is getting better. 
2. The rich and poor gap is increasing. 
--- Most people are in the middle. 
3. Only rich nations can afford social development, girls in school and 
ready for natural disasters. 
--- The majority already have this. 
4. Some things are not so important. 
--- Assume you're going to exaggerate the problem.

They don't apply to everything. It's a systematic approach.

If you have a fact-based worldview of today, you might have a chance to understand what's coming next in the future.

How the Rest and the West(the EU and North America) compares in terms of how rich you are. These are the people who can afford to fly abroad with an airplane for a vacation. In 1975, only 30 percent of them lived outside the West . That has changed today. In 2014, it's 50/50. The Western domination is over, as of today. That's nice. So what's going to happen next? In 2020, it's 57%, 2025, it's 63%, 2030, it's 68%, and in 2035 the West is outnumbered in the rich consumer market. These are just projections of GDP per capita into the future. 73%* of the rich consumers are going to live outside North America and Europe.

I think it's a good idea for a company to use this certificate to make sure to make fact- based decisions in the future. 
=== 
[My response] The presentation gives the unique impression that things are getting better for the Rest of the World, if We but think they are.

*Constructs from statistics show trends based on current events.

FB
Frank Barry
Posted 4 years ago

Respectfully I beg to differ.

Sharks, only bother those in or on the water. Mostly in. 
The other stats are ignorant as they have erroneous parameters. 
Hans and Ola are constructing stats by using the wrong premise. 
It must be the successes of the past for Hans that has clouded his vision.

Try separating victims of genocide, and other politically caused atrocities from your more mundane populations. Value the victims, versus those who live within the protective umbrella of the aggressors. Re-sort, and you will undoubtedly come up with a better TED talk.

Sorry I cannot like this talk. The past ones have been great.

ps: You might want to include the American Indians as victims. 
They surely are.

RM
Raynette Mitchell
Posted 4 years ago

I tend to agree with you although I did enjoy the talk.

Regarding the increase in people who use airlines - West v the Rest, I think this has more to do with the enormous decline in the cost of air travel over the years than the increase in people's wealth.

Re. what we're frightened of - I live near the beach so of course, I am much more afraid of sharks than say, volcanoes - which have never occurred in the country in which I live.

It's all relevant to each individual, isn't it? I don't see this as ignorance as much as being realistic in today's world.

FB
Frank Barry
Posted 4 years ago
In reply to:
I tend to agree with you although I did enjoy the talk. Regarding the increase in people who use airlines - West v the Rest, I think this has more to do with the enormous decline in the cost of air travel over the years than the increase in people's wealth. Re. what we're frightened of - I live near the beach so of course, I am much more afraid of sharks than say, volcanoes - which have never occurred in the country in which I live. It's all relevant to each individual, isn't it? I don't see this as ignorance as much as being realistic in today's world.
Raynette Mitchell

Thanks Raynette, great response. 
Ola seemed to have his own agenda. It fit well in a corporate meeting setting. I would label the talk 'uninspiring'.

Problems do not go away when ignored.

RK
Richard Krooman
Posted 4 years ago

Talks like this makes me question/distrust education and news... 
Hans and Ola might be able to spend all of their time to gain this data (and knowledge) of the world. But by far most people get their knowledge from their education and the news that they follow.

Please enforce the media and schools to actually have knowledge about the world... I don't like being misinformed and I definitely don't want to be misinformed by sources that I am expected to trust.

Gabby -
Posted 4 years ago

In case you are interested, the Rosling data pertinent to a host of questions are available and kept up-to-date on Gapminder.org.

FB
Frank Barry
Posted 4 years ago
In reply to:
In case you are interested, the Rosling data pertinent to a host of questions are available and kept up-to-date on Gapminder.org.
Gabby -

Nope Fritzie, in this case, no interest at all.

AW
Alfred Widmann
Posted 4 years ago

Great talk - I like how it highlights our biases against the real situation. Finally some good news and reason to be positive and up-beat!

I have some concerns though, similar to Jaroslav's. A lot of the development we are celebrating (e.g. higher incomes/ greater economic output) is not accompanied with increasing biodiversity. So if those two trends continue aren't both systems destined to collapse?

Another thing about the statistics, I am reminded of this video speaking about wealth distribution and the distribution of power (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=slTF_XXoKAQ). It basically says that wealth distribution in america is very skewed, assuming this generalisation can be applied to the 'west', does that mean these statistics are at odds with each other? Or is wealth distribution fundamentally different from income distribution?

Gabby -
Posted 4 years ago

Rosling is doing a comparison *among* countries rather than *within* countries. The wealth or income distribution *within* specific countries could be more skewed even as the distribution *among* countries is less skewed.

In fact, people will tend to be more familiar with the situation within their own countries and from that assume that a comparison across countries would follow the same pattern. There is no particular reason that these trends must track each other.

JB
Jaroslav Borovský
Posted 4 years ago

I mostly agree :-) things are changing for better BUT (yes it is a great but) there are other stats and facts. For instance climate change, i missed it in his great presentation. And the income inequality didnt consider feel inflation of needs (which is ussualy bigger than the general one) and mostly the fact we could feed this left 1/4 of the graph if we didnt look on money but on our technological possibilities as Resource Based Economy proposes.


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