SHANGHAI — China has spent nearly five years steering an ever-growing stream of hundreds of billions of dollars to a bold plan to gain greater global influence by funding big projects across Asia, Eastern Europe and Africa.

Now, Beijing is starting to tap the brakes.

The value of the deals that Chinese companies are striking under the country’s big global plan — called the Belt and Road Initiative — is smaller than a year ago, according to new data. Chinese officials themselves are sounding a cautious note, voicing worries that Chinese institutions need to be careful how much they lend under the program — and make sure their international borrowers can pay it back.

“Current international conditions are very uncertain, with lots of economic risks and large fluctuations for interest rates in newly emerged markets,” said Hu Xiaolian, the chairwoman of the Export-Import Bank of China, a state-controlled lender that plays a big role in financing the projects, at a forum this month in Shanghai. “Our enterprises and Belt and Road Initiative countries will face financing difficulties.”

China has begun a broad, interagency review of how many deals have already been done, on what financial terms and with which countries, say people close to Chinese economic policymaking, who asked to speak on the condition of anonymity because the effort has not been made public.

American and European officials have long worried that Belt and Road represents a diplomatic and economic power grab by Beijing, fueled by its vast government wealth and helped by the Communist Party’s laserlike focus on achieving long-term goals.

Under the initiative, Chinese government-controlled lenders offer big chunks of money — usually through loans or financial guarantees — to other countries to build big infrastructure projects like highways, rail lines and power plants. That money often comes with the requirement that Chinese companies be heavily involved in the planning and construction, throwing them a lot of business.

But even with its financial firepower, China has its limits. Its economy is showing signs of slowing, and it’s in the middle of a trade war with the United States. Beijing isstruggling to tame domestic debt problems — problems an international lending spree certainly hasn’t helped.

“Ensuring debt sustainability — that is very important,” Yi Gang, the new governor of China’s central bank, said at a conference in Beijing in late April. Officials are voicing new worries about Chinese lending in uncertain economic conditions.CreditJason Lee/Reuters

Too much overseas activity risks creating wasteful white elephants that can drag down Chinese companies and local partners alike. All types of deals are now angling to be associated with the Belt and Road Initiative like a theme park in Indonesia and a brewery in the Czech Republic.

Belt and Road lending seemed a sure thing when the effort began under Mr. Xi in 2013. Loans would be long term, giving borrowers time to pay them back. China also tends to extend loans mainly to countries with significant natural resources. If a resource-rich developing country had trouble repaying its loans, it could offer goods like oil, iron ore or even food instead.

But part of the problem now is that no one — not even the Chinese government — has a comprehensive picture of the lending so far. The Finance Ministry and the state-controlled banking system have poured money into projects from the Czech Republic to Laos, and from South Africa to Kazakhstan. The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission estimated this spring that Chinese banks had lent $200 billion for 2,600 projects.

Various government agencies have also issued extensive export guarantees, loan guarantees and other financial arrangements as part of the initiative, although some of these overlap with the bank loans.

A Belt and Road slowdown may also be natural. Official data show Chinese companies are completing projects at nearly the same pace as they are signing deals for new ones, suggesting the initiative may simply be settling into a sustainable rhythm.

“They are still very actively promoting Belt and Road,” said Andrew Mackenzie, the chief executive of BHP Billiton, an Australian mining giant that is among the biggest exporters of iron ore to Chinese steel mills, which are among the intended beneficiaries of Belt and Road.

Still, some Chinese officials are looking more closely at where the money is ending up.

For example, they have been reassessing the country’s financial exposure in Africa, a continent with immense natural resources that has lured a wide range of Chinese energy and construction companies, people close to Chinese policymaking said.

Belt and Road has been viewed with increasing skepticism by multilateral institutions as well. They have warned that developing countries should not incur excessive debts.

“The first priority,” Christine Lagarde, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said at the Beijing conference in April, “is that Belt and Road only travels to where it is really needed.”

Follow Keith Bradsher on Twitter: @KeithBradsher.

中国“一带一路”项目放缓，借贷风险引发担忧

KEITH BRADSHER 2018年7月2日

https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20180702/china-belt-and-road-slows/ 

六月初，在斯里兰卡科伦坡的中国建筑工人。马来西亚和斯里兰卡等国的新政府对前任政府大举向北京借债提出了质疑。 ADAM DEAN FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

上海——中国花了将近五年的时间，将数千亿美元不断增长的资金转化为一个大胆的计划，通过资助亚洲、东欧和非洲的大型项目来获得更大的全球影响力。

现在，北京开始踩刹车了。

最新数据显示，中国公司在这个名为“一带一路”倡议的大型全球计划中达成的交易规模要小于一年前。中国官员也发出了谨慎的声音，表达了担忧，即中国的金融机构需要对它们为该计划提供的放贷精打细算，并确保国际借款人有能力偿还。

“当前国际形势具有不确定性，特别是经济上风险很多，新兴市场国家汇率产生大幅度波动，”中国进出口银行董事长胡晓炼本月在上海的一个论坛说。中国进出口银行是一个国有银行，在该项目的融资中扮演着重要角色。“我们的企业，包括‘一带一路’沿线国家的融资会面临更多的困难。”

熟悉中国经济政策制定情况的人士表示，中国已开始对目前达成了多少交易、融资条款是什么、与哪些国家达成交易进行广泛的跨部门审查。由于这项工作目前尚未公布，相关人士要求匿名发言。

一直以来，美国和欧洲官员都担心，“一带一路”表明北京正在争夺外交和经济方面的权力，它由中国庞大的政府财富支持，共产党对实现长期目标的极度专注对其亦有帮助。

根据该倡议，中国政府控制的贷款机构向其他国家提供大量资金——通常是以贷款或财务担保形式——建设高速公路、铁路和发电厂等大型基础设施项目。这些资金往往伴随着中国公司要大量参与项目规划和建设的条件，从而给这些企业带来了很多业务。

但即使有强大的财力，中国也有自身的局限性。它的经济出现放缓迹象，并且正处于同美国的贸易战中。北京还在努力解决国内债务问题——狂热的国际借贷肯定无助于解决这个问题。

2017年，在老挝万荣附近建设的一条中老铁路。从捷克共和国到老挝，从南非到哈萨克斯坦，中国财政部和国家控制的银行系统向各种项目注入了大量资金。 ADAM DEAN FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

过多的海外项目可能造成浪费的“白象”（指大而无当、造价昂贵、不实用的东西。——译注），从而拖累中国公司和当地合作伙伴。现在所有类型的交易都想和“一带一路”扯上关系，比如印度尼西亚的一座主题公园和捷克共和国的一家啤酒厂。

此外，肆意挥霍的贷款可能会令中国与其他国家的关系恶化，而不是促进它们。马来西亚和斯里兰卡等地的新政府质疑，他们的前任为什么要向北京借那么多钱。

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今年，一些中国官员对该计划中的贷款也表示了担忧。

“保证投融资的可持续性非常重要，”中国央行新任行长易纲在4月底北京的一次会议上表示。

官方数据显示，虽然“一带一路”的活动仍然巨大，但它肯定会变得更加克制。在2018年的前五个月，中国公司签署了价值362亿美元的合同，比去年同期下降近6%。

与2016年相比，去年这个时候签订的协议数量也有所下降，不过幅度要小一些。那次下降主要是因为，2017年5月在北京要举行一个大型的“一带一路”论坛，中国最高领导人习近平、俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·V·普京(Vladimir V. Putin)和其他主要政治人物都将出席，所以大企业和政府在之前有所保留。论坛结束后，项目活跃程度出现激增。

“我感到与去年相比，对于‘一带一路’的热度显然是下降了好几个等级，”康奈尔大学经济学家、国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)中国分部的前负责人埃斯瓦尔·普拉萨德(Eswar Prasad)说道。他不久前访问过北京，与中国的金融政策制定者进行了广泛的交流。

当然，项目活跃程度在今年晚些时候有可能增加。但是，全球经济前景的不确定性，令北京有更多谨慎行事的理由。

美国与其他国家，尤其是跟中国之间旷日持久的贸易战，有可能会令信心动摇，阻碍经济的增长。美国已经调高了短期利率，使得借贷成本上涨。过去，美国加息有时候会给其他地方带来金融动荡，尤其是在新兴市场。

2013年习近平开始推进这个项目时，“一带一路”贷款似乎还是确定无疑的事情。贷款是长期的，向借款人提供足够的偿还时间。中国还往往倾向于向拥有大量自然资源的国家发放贷款。如果一个有着丰富资源的发展中国家在还贷方面遇到了困难，也可以拿石油、铁矿石甚至食物等等来偿还。

但就眼下来说，部分问题是没有人对贷款情况有全面了解，甚至连中国政府也是如此。从捷克共和国到老挝，从南非到哈萨克斯坦，中国财政部和国家控制的银行系统向各种项目注入了大量资金。中国银行保险监督管理委员会今年春天估计，中国的银行为2600个项目提供了2000亿美元的贷款。

作为该计划的一部分，各政府机构还提供了大量的出口担保、贷款担保和其他财务安排，尽管其中一些与银行贷款重叠。

“保证投融资的可持续性非常重要，”中国央行新任行长易纲在4月底北京的一次会议上表示。中国官员对于中国在不确定的经济条件下发放贷款表示出新的担忧。 JASON LEE/REUTERS

“一带一路”的放缓也有可能是正常的。官方数据显示，中国企业完成项目的速度与签署新项目的速度几乎一致，这表明，该计划可能只是在逐步建立一个可持续的节奏。

“他们仍然在非常积极地推动‘一带一路’，”澳大利亚矿业巨头必和必拓(BHP Billiton)的首席执行官安德鲁·麦肯齐(Andrew Mackenzie)说。必和必拓是向中国钢铁企业供应铁矿石的最大输出者之一，也是“一带一路”的预期受益者之一。

尽管如此，一些中国官员正在更密切地关注资金流向了何处。

举例来说，据了解中国决策情况的人透露，他们一直在评估在非洲的金融风险，这块大陆因为拥有丰富的自然资源，而吸引了大量的中国能源和建筑企业。

“一带一路”也受到多边机构越来越多的怀疑。他们警告，发展中国家不应该大肆举债。

“第一要务是，”国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德(Christine Lagarde)4月在北京的会议上说，“‘一带一路’只去那些真正需要它的地方。”