日志
James Galbraith 主流经济学为何误判通胀
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James Galbraith 主流经济学为何误判通胀
2023 年 11 月 15 日 James K. Galbraith
2021-22 年主要经济学家对通胀的误判是一系列长期失败中的最新一集，从未能预见 2008 年金融危机到支持 2010 年代自我毁灭的紧缩政策。要么主流经济学家需要重新审视他们的核心信念，要么这个行业需要新的主流。
奥斯汀——经济学家保罗·克鲁格曼在 2023 年 11 月 7 日的《纽约时报》时事通讯中提出了一个很好的问题，尽管有些迟了：为什么这么多经济学家对通胀前景的判断是错误的？毕竟，近年来主流经济学家几乎一致认为，通胀将持续，甚至加速，这为美联储大幅加息提供了理由。然而，2021-22 年的准通胀被证明是暂时的。
Why Mainstream Economics Got Inflation Wrong
Leading economists' misdiagnosis of inflation in 2021-22 was the latest episode in a long-running series of failures, from not foreseeing the 2008 financial crisis to endorsing self-destructive austerity in the 2010s. Either mainstream economists need to re-examine their core beliefs, or the profession needs a new mainstream.
AUSTIN – In his November 7, 2023 New York Times newsletter, the economist Paul Krugman asks a good, albeit belated, question: Why did so many economists get the inflation outlook wrong? After all, the near-consensus among mainstream economists in recent years was that inflation would persist – and even accelerate – and that this justified substantial interest-rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve. Yet the quasi-inflation of 2021-22 proved transitory.